EEE会議（中東情勢の混迷とブッシュ政権の焦り）...................................................03.11.08


米国のイラク戦後処理も、イラン核疑惑対策も中々米国の思うようには
進んでおらず、ブッシュ大統領の苛立ちが益々募っているようです。

ところで、同大統領は１１月６日、ワシントンで開かれた米商工会議所
民主主義基金（National Endowment for Democracy）の２０周年式典で
演説しましたが、その中で、彼は、イラン、シリアのほか、伝統的に中東
で最も親米的と考えられてきたエジプト、サウジアラビア両国に対して、
民主化の努力を一層強化するよう求めると共に、サダム・フセインの崩壊
は「世界民主主義革命の分水嶺となる出来事」(a watershed event in the
global democratic revolution)と見なすべきだと断言、２０世紀に始まった
米国主導の民主主義革命が、中東で新たな段階に入ったと言明しました。
(この演説を伝えた11/7日付けNY Times記事をご覧下さい。）

ブッシュ大統領はさらに、「西側諸国が中東での自由の欠如を容認し見逃し
てきた過去６０年間が、われわれを安全から遠ざけた」と指摘、「長期的に
見て、安定は自由を犠牲にして手に入れることはできない」とし、イラク戦争
の正当性を言外に訴えました。しかし、先制攻撃の是非、大量破壊兵器問題、
現在のイラクの状況には全く触れずじまいだったようです。

同大統領はまた、米国が中東の自由を達成するための将来的な戦略を、
新たな政策として採用したとし、結果的に、第２次大戦後の日独の民主化、
ソ連崩壊と同様の道筋を経て、「同じ結果に終わる」と強調。ネオコンの見解
に沿った論理立てで、イラク戦争のより広範な目的を披瀝し、支持を得ようと
したものです。

しかし、中東の知識人の間では、米国の介入でモサデク民主革命が失敗に
終わったイラン（１９５３年）、アルジェリアにおいて、軍部の介入により総選挙
結果がほごにされたにもかかわらず米国が何の対応も取らなかったこと（１９
９１年）、そしてイスラエルへの盲目的な支持―を例に挙げて、信憑性がない
と酷評する向きも少なくありません。

とくに今回の演説で、従来最も親米的と目されてきたサウジアラビアを名指し
て、同国の民主化促進と中東地域でのリーダーシップ発揮を求めている
ことは、裏返せばサウジアラビアの現状に対する米国の不満を表わしている
と考えられ、今後米国と同国の関係の緊張化は避けられないでしょう。

いずれにしても、米国の大統領が、このような挑戦的な演説を繰り返し行うこ
とができ、それを称える米国民が依然として多数を占めているという事実は、
我々としても十分知っておく必要があるのではないかと思います。１年後の
大統領選挙に向けて、ブッシュ大統領もいよいよ必死になってきたようです。
--KK

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Bush Asks Lands in Mideast to Try Democratic Ways
By DAVID E. SANGER

Published: November 7, 2003


WASHINGTON, Nov. 6 ? President Bush on Thursday challenged Iran, Syria and
two crucial Middle East allies of the United States ? Egypt and Saudi
Arabia ? to begin embracing democratic traditions, and to view the fall of
Saddam Hussein as "a watershed event in the global democratic revolution."

"Sixty years of Western nations excusing and accommodating the lack of
freedom in the Middle East did nothing to make us safe," Mr. Bush argued, in
a critique that embraced both Democrats and Republicans who preceded him,
"because in the long run, stability cannot be purchased at the expense of
liberty."

The speech, before the National Endowment for Democracy, appeared to be part
of an effort by the White House to change American and world perceptions of
the Iraq occupation, describing it in far broader strategic terms than the
ouster of a dictator.

But it came at a moment when Mr. Bush is struggling to create democratic
institutions in Iraq itself, and when the daily casualties among the
American and allied soldiers have led many in the region to question whether
the United States is capable of transforming the nation it invaded.

In the speech, the president sought to position the American experiment in
remaking Iraq alongside the United States' efforts to spread democracy in
Asia and Europe after World War II and to bring about the fall of the Soviet
Union. He directly compared what he called his administration's new "forward
strategy of freedom in the Middle East" to President Ronald Reagan's 1982
declaration in England that Soviet Communism had failed.

He identified four nations where he said dictatorship was doomed to failure:
North Korea, Myanmar ? which he referred to by its former name, Burma ? Cuba
and Zimbabwe, declaring that "these regimes cannot hold back freedom
forever." He predicted that just as Nelson Mandela emerged from captivity in
South Africa to lead his nation, "one day, from prison camps and prison
cells and from exile, the leaders of new democracies will arrive" in the
four countries.

Mr. Bush had sounded similar themes before, notably in a speech at the
American Enterprise Institute a month and a half before he ordered the
invasion of Iraq. But until Thursday's speech, he had not identified nations
that he thought urgently needed to reform. For the first time, he also
raised, gingerly, the issue of the absence of liberty in Saudi Arabia, one
of America's major oil suppliers and a nation that has long been spared
presidential rebuke.

"The Saudi government is taking first steps toward reform," he said,
choosing his words carefully about a country that one of his senior aides
said recently "is probably the most resistant to change of any nation in the
region." He referred to its experiment with local elections, avoided any
mention of the struggle within the Saudi royal family over whether and how
to surrender some authority, and he offered the most gentle of
encouragement.

"By giving the Saudi people a greater role in their own society," Mr. Bush
said, "the Saudi government can demonstrate true leadership in the region."

He also pressed Egypt ? which receives upward of $2 billion annually in aid
from the United States ? saying it "has shown the way toward peace in the
Middle East, and now should show the way toward democracy in the Middle
East." But later, his spokesman, Scott McClellan, said the president was not
threatening any consequences for his Arab allies if they failed to heed his
warning.

The pressure runs the risk of backfiring. In the Arab world, Mr. Bush's
remarks about human rights and democracy are often viewed as hypocritical,
and Arabs often compare those statements to the treatment of suspected
terrorists held by American forces at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, or the
president's reluctance to demand that Israel stop constructing its barrier
along the West Bank.

Some Arab intellectuals urging greater civil liberties say Mr. Bush's
endorsement undermines them, because it paints them as stooges of the United
States.