Subject: EEE会議（日本核武装論：どのくらいで核兵器を製造できるか？）
Date: Mon, 13 Jan 2003 14:17:43 +0900
From: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位

新年早々からきな臭い話題続きで恐縮ながら、米国での日本核武装論議に関連
して、「仮に日本が核武装するとすれば、どのくらいの期間でできるだろう
か」ということが目下話題になっています。これについて、小生は勿論専門的
な知識も経験（！）も持ち合わせていませんが、常識的に考えられることを私
見として纏めてみました。見当違いかもしれませんので、どなたか、匿名で結
構ですから、補足なり訂正してください。　あるいは、この点について何か文
献らしきものがあればご教示ください。
金子熊夫

***********************************

<How soon can Japan make nuclear bombs if she has decided to
do so?>

It all depends on a variety of conditions such as (1) whether or not
the Japanese government can mobilize literally all the best talent in
Japan (the best scientists and engineers) in its nuclear weapon
development, be it overt or covert; (2) whether or not Japan can keep
using nuclear materials under its jurisdiction, i.e. without
international sanctions (based on the bilateral nuclear cooperation
agreements) by the countries which are original suppliers of
those materials (US, Canada, Australia, UK, France), (3) which
methods to be used for manufacturing nuclear weapons, plutonium
(Nagasaki-type) or highly enriched uranium (Hiroshima-type),
(4) whether or not Japan can conduct nuclear explosion test, and
where?

There is of course a big difference between sofisticated nuclear bombs
which can be used as real weapons and crude bombs (or "dirty bombs")
which may hardly be used for practical purposes. If you are satisfied
with the latter, you could fabricate them fairly easily, say within a
few months, assuming that all the above-mentioned conditions are met.
But, then, what's the use of such bombs if they are not actually
usable as weapons?

Needless to say, there will be many other problems--God knows how
many--because we have never actually manufactured, or even attempted
to manufacture, nuclear weapons or explosive devices. What is clear
to me is that it will take far more time to make nuclear weapons than
most of hawkish Japanese politicians seem to believe.

K. Kaneko, Tokyo