Subject: EEE会議（Re:　日本核武装論）
Date: Tue, 14 Jan 2003 08:52:34 +0900
From: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位

新年早々このようなきな臭い話を続けるのは正直言って甚だ不本意で、実際小
生のところには、「日本核武装論などというものは所詮academicな議論、一種
の頭の体操であって無意味だ」とか「こういう問題を米国人などが議論するの
は結構だが、日本人が議論するとあらぬ誤解を招くのでやめた方がよい。いず
れにせよＮＰＴを脱退しなければできないことだから」というようなご意見も
届いております。ただ、実際にあるところで行なわれている議論であり、こん
な機会でもなければあまり耳にすることもないのではないかと思いますので、
ご批判は覚悟で、今しばらく続けることにします。その割には大してレベルの
高い議論でもないような気もしますが、新春閑話の１つとして聞き流してくだ
さい。コメントは歓迎します。
金子熊夫
***********************************

<The question: IF (a big if) Japan decides to develop nuclear
weapons now, how soon can it develop the first nuclear bomb
without US assistance?>

Anyone can make a nuclear weapon; the instructions are public
domain by now. Putting it on a rocket and delivering it is the more
difficult part, but Japan already has that capability.

Japan has pledged never to make or possess nuclear weapons, and
not to allow them to be brought into its territory. Disturbingly, the
third principle has been broken many times. This does raise doubts
as to whether the other principles would be retained if the US
nuclear umbrella were to disappear from this region.

John De Hoog
******************************

If Japan launched a crash program, I think it would take less than a
year's time. Japan is one of the few countries that is still trying
to
use plutonium in its' nuclear energy generating cycle, and already
has supplies of plutonium, as well as having completely mastered
the technology of making it. It is also one of the leading countries
in
the world for nuclear engineering, with a large pool of scientists and
engineers to call upon. Also, it has all the special metals
technology, electronicsa and machining technology necessary.

W.T.Stonehill
*******************************

On this subject I recommend Selig S Harrison (ed) Japan's Nuclear
Future: The plutonium debate and East Asian security. (1996)
Carnegie Endowment. A lucid analysis of this question.

I would note that the issue of Japanese nuclear weapons is not
whether they can build a nuclear bomb or even whether they can
mount them on ballistic missiles, as other correspondents have
noted, the H-2 programme and the basic N-technologies are
available. The technological issues are more likely to be whether
Japan can create weapons capable of disabling hardened missile
silos and C3 facilities. This is in the area of weapons design and the
accuracy of missiles. Both areas have required extensive testing
and are obviously areas where Japan could benefit from US help.

Ken Okamura