Subject: ＥＥＥ会議（サダムは再びやるか？　イラク攻撃と油田の安全確保）
Date: Sun, 26 Jan 2003 11:58:34 +0900
From: "金子　熊夫" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位

世界第２の石油確定埋蔵量を有するイラクは、もし米国の攻撃が本格的に開始すれ
ば、１２年前の湾岸戦争中クウェートから撤退したときのように、国内の油田を破壊
するのではないかと懸念されております。　米国国務省によれば、イラク南部に１，
０００、北部に５００の油田がある由で、実際にこれらが破壊されれば、世界の石油
供給に甚大な影響を持つのみならず、イラクの戦後復興にも大きなマイナスとなるは
ずです。

かかる事態を未然に防ぐため、米国は開戦と同時に直ちに特殊部隊を送り込んで、こ
れらの油田を破壊から守る計画だと非公式に言っております。詳細は、次の国務省情
報（１月２６日）でどうぞ。
金子熊夫
*********************************************


Subject: U.S. Plans to Secure Iraqi Oil, If Need Be, From Regime Sabotage
(Oil resources, infrastructure would be preserved for free Iraq)


Washington -- A senior Defense Department official says military planners
are conducting contingency planning on how to secure Iraqi oil fields from
acts of sabotage by an unstable or vengeful Iraqi regime -- should
conflict occur anytime in the future.

While President Bush has not yet made any decision to engage in combat
operations, the official said reliable intelligence sources suggest that
that Saddam Hussein could order the destruction of Iraqi oil wells just as
he did when Iraqi forces destroyed Kuwaiti oil wells during the Persian
Gulf conflict in 1991. During a January 24 background briefing at the
Pentagon, the official warned that any action that the Iraqi regime might
take against its own oil wells would be viewed as "an act of terror" and
could spark "a real potential crisis."

Iraqi oil is a national asset that will be important to the future of the
Iraqi people, he said, and U.S. officials want to discourage any Iraqis
who might seek to destroy refineries or wells. The official said the U.S.
could use the dropping of informational leaflets over Iraq -- or any other
possible means -- "to discourage that kind of an action" in the northern
or southern Iraqi oil regions. He said there are around 500 Iraqi oil
wells in the north and some 1,000 in the south.

"We feel it's important to preserve those fields so that there is a
potential for very rapid development of the economy in Iraq" in any
post-conflict environment, the official said. This is not about the
United States "trying to gain advantage by taking these oil fields," he
emphasized, "or to preserve its own oil industry. It is solely, and most
importantly, to preserve the capability of the Iraqi people to stand up
very quickly after a Saddam [Hussein] regime [is gone] and become a
functioning, capable member of the economic community."

The U.S. military is concerned because it believes, based on various
intelligence reports, that the regime in Baghdad has both the capability
and intent to damage or destroy its oil fields, said the official. While
such destruction will not impede any military mission by coalition forces,
he said it will penalize the Iraqi people and have a lasting, deleterious
effect on the nation. He said he could not point to hard evidence that
the Iraqi oil wells have been wired with explosives or oil fields mined
because both are difficult to detect via satellite and other imagery;
however, he suggested "in some cases" that process may have already
started.

Through a variety of means, the official said, intelligence officers have
"gathered enough information that tells us that the planning [for using
oil as a weapon of terror] may be ongoing; that intent is there. And,
certainly we know that Saddam has [land] mines and he has explosives and
those kinds of things, and so ... then to tie that to his demonstrated
intent to use terror as a weapon, at least, tells me that I need to be
prepared for it as a planner."

The military is concerned that the Iraqi leader "will try to destroy
everything," the official said, because Saddam Hussein has already used
chemical weapons against his own population and sought to destroy the
Kuwaiti oil infrastructure. He set 730 out of 1,000 Kuwaiti wells afire
as his forces were forced to withdraw from Kuwait's territory by a united
international coalition in 1991. He also caused environmental havoc, not
just through the pollutants that were released by the oil fires, but also
by the deliberate release of five million barrels of oil into the Persian
Gulf, which took a toll on neighboring desalination plants as well as
marine and wildlife. The briefer said "we need to be prepared to respond
.. should he choose to do that again" because the financial costs
associated with cleanup and the timeline for repairs would be double what
was required for Kuwait.

The official -- who spoke on condition that he not be identified -- said
the United States seeks to relay a message "to the people in Iraq who are
responsible for the oil fields as an economic entity, who are responsible
for the military in the conduct of potential combat operations" that the
oil fields will be important to their future.

Although it would be a non-traditional task for the military to secure and
protect oil fields, the official said it is prudent to plan for rapid
preservation to head off destruction rather than "having to go in and
clean up after" the fact. The job could be undertaken by special
operations, conventional or highly mobile forces, he said.

(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
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