Subject: EEE会議（米国の石油価格高騰：３つの要因）
Date: Tue, 28 Jan 2003 08:32:48 +0900
From: "金子　熊夫" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位

米国では、「イラク攻撃問題、ベネズエラの石油産業のストライキに加えて、７年ぶ
りの猛寒波の来襲により、暖房用石油価格はここ２ヶ月で３０％高騰し、原油の在庫
量は過去４半世紀で最低レベルに減少した。専門家によれば、イラク問題で１ドル、
寒波で２ドル、ベネズエラで３ドル分上昇し、石油小売価格はいまや３５ドル（１バ
レル当たり）になっている」というアメリカABC Newsの石油情勢についてのリポート
です。ご参考まで。詳細は以下のとおり。
金子熊夫

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Up, Up and Away
Weather, War Worry, and a Worker's Strike Send Oil Prices Soaring

By Bill Blakemore

Jan. 25 -- Homeowners everywhere have reason to worry this winter, with
heating oil prices up 30 percent in two months, gas up to $1.45 at the
pump, and U.S. crude oil inventories at their lowest levels in a
quarter-century.

It could get worse.
According to some analysts, there is a "perfect storm" brewing in oil
prices because of three major factors coming together.

◆To the South

The 50-day Venezuela oil strike, which aims to drive out President Hugo
Chavez, has all but cut off the oil flow that normally provides 14 percent
of what the United States uses.

Chavez is trying to get his troops to take over oil production, but it
seems not to be working. According to the latest shipping data, despite
two weeks of raised production, exports have reached only 688,000 barrels
per day, a quarter of the normal levels.

According to Chavez's opposition, 90 percent of the country's oil refining
remains closed.

◆On the Home Front

The coldest weather in seven years in many parts of the county has raised
heating oil demands and costs.

According to a survey by the Energy Department's Energy Information
Administration, the price U.S. consumers paid for home heating oil
increased for the ninth week in a row, reaching it highest level in almost
two years. The latest heating oil price of $1.453 a gallon is up 29 cents
from a year ago, and the highest since the third week of February 2001.

For many households this winter, the latest deep freeze will help add a
$600 to $700 cost to keep pipes from freezing and will drain U.S. oil
supplies even further.

◆To the East

A looming war with Iraq raises concerns that the world could lose up to 2
million barrels of the world's 40 million barrels per day of crude oil.

A Pentagon official told Reuters news service that any U.S. war on Iraq
would try to protect oil facilities and keep export stoppages to a minimum,
but others have said both oil storage facilities and refineries could
become military targets.

And, there is always the fear that Saddam Hussein could torch his own oil
fields if we go to war. Memories of how Saddam set Kuwait's oil wells
afire when retreating from the 1991 Gulf War may only make investors in
the world oil market more nervous.

◆On the Rise

Analysts say war worries now add $1 a barrel to the price of crude oil,
the cold spell $2, and Venezuela's chaos $3, and uncertainty about each
feeds worry about the others.

So, buyers are now willing to pay $35 a barrel, a two-year high and
climbing.