Subject: ＥＥＥ会議（北朝鮮核問題：ワースト・シナリオ）
Date: Wed, 5 Feb 2003 09:39:39 +0900
From: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位
最新の米国ＣＩＡ情報によれば、北朝鮮の核問題が一段と深刻化しているようです。
米太平洋軍司令官は、北朝鮮の暴発を抑止する目的で空母艦隊の派遣をペンタゴンに
要求中ですが、ホワイトハウスは目下イラク問題で頭が一杯のようです。日本国内で
も、まだ危機感が少ないようですが、New York Timesの著名コラムニスト、ニコラス
・クリストフによれば、北朝鮮の核問題は世間が考えているより遥かに危機的状況に
あるということです。彼の描く北朝鮮危機のワースト・シナリオ（向こう６ヶ月間）
をご紹介します（２月４日付けＮＹＴ）。
金子熊夫
******************************************************

'A Sea of Fire,' or Worse?

By NICHOLAS KRISTOF
The North Korean nuclear crisis is far more perilous than many people
realize.

The White House, wanting to keep the focus on Iraq, did not even bother to
tell us that satellite images show North Korea apparently taking steps
toward reprocessing plutonium. It was left to my Times colleague David
(Scoop) Sanger to alert the public a few days ago.

Can you imagine if it were Iraq that had been spotted moving nuclear fuel
around? The news that the Pentagon is reinforcing its preparedness on the
Korean Peninsula suggests that it doesn't believe the White House lullabies
either.

When North Korea has reprocessed its plutonium and built five more nuclear
weapons, probably by summer, it'll try to pressure us into a new package
deal. To understand how dangerous the Korean Peninsula could become,
consider one worst-case scenario:

Feb. 14: The C.I.A. confirms that North Korea is reprocessing plutonium,
making a pre-emptive U.S. military strike more difficult because of the risk
of radiation leakage.

Feb. 15: "This is not a crisis," the White House declares.

March 17: North Korea announces that it will resume missile tests. Stocks
plunge in Tokyo and Seoul.

March 26: North Korea test-fires a two-stage Taepodong 2 missile. It soars
over Japan, knocking 9 percent off the Tokyo stock market. C.I.A. analysts
warn that a three-stage version of the Taepodong 2 could reach the U.S.
mainland.

March 27: "This is not a major crisis," the White House declares.

April 7: On the birthday of the late Great Leader Kim Il Sung, North Korea
resumes construction of a nuclear reactor in Taechon that will be capable of
producing plutonium for 44 warheads annually.

May 1: The U.N. Security Council approves sanctions. Without Chinese
enforcement they mean little.

June 29: North Korea completes reprocessing, and the plutonium is dispersed
to be made into warheads.

July 10: North Korea tests a nuclear device. Stocks tumble worldwide,
leading a big Japanese bank to the edge of bankruptcy.

July 12: North Korea formally declares itself a nuclear state, proudly
asserting that the "Korean Bomb" will be used on behalf of all Koreans to
combat Japanese and American aggressors. Stocks plunge worldwide, triggering
a Japanese banking crisis and a global recession.

July 13: "This is not a monumental crisis," the White House says.

July 15: Tokyo's mayor, Shintaro Ishihara, launches a campaign for prime
minister on a platform of building nuclear weapons.

July 20: With its plutonium safely hidden, North Korea begins to pressure
the U.S. to negotiate a package solution to the crisis. Its troops spray
machine-gun fire across the DMZ. South Korean and Japanese stock markets
fall 7 percent.

Aug. 1: A sealed vial of anthrax is found in an Osaka subway car. No one is
hurt, but some commentators suggest it is a message from North Korea to the
U.S.: "You'd better talk to us."

Aug. 5: Iranian and Libyan nuclear buyers are spotted shopping in Pyongyang.

Aug. 6: "We shouldn't exaggerate this crisis," the White House says. "As
we've said from the beginning, we're always ready to sit down with North
Korea and talk."

Aug. 13: Donald Rumsfeld offers three military options to President Bush.
The minimal one calls for a cruise missile strike on North Korea's known
nuclear facilities (but because the plutonium has been reprocessed and the
warheads hidden, we cannot take out its nuclear arsenal). The maximal one
also destroys the North's air defense system and much of its artillery.

Aug. 16: Intelligence intercepts suggest that North Korea will respond to
even a minimal U.S. military strike by launching conventional missiles at
Japan, and to a broader strike by turning Seoul into "a sea of fire." The
C.I.A. warns that if the North finds itself losing a conventional war, it
will use chemical, biological and possibly nuclear weapons against Japan and
U.S. forces in South Korea. All sides brace for a new Korean war, which the
C.I.A. estimates could kill one million people.

Aug. 17: Colin Powell is told by President Bush: "If only we'd listened to
you two years ago about the need to engage North Korea! Even this February,
if only we had started negotiations. I'm sorry, Colin, we blew it." Then Mr.
Powell wakes up and realizes he was dreaming.