Subject: EEE会議（日本のエネルギーは大丈夫か？）
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 10:00:12 +0900
From: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位

イラク攻撃がいよいよ現実のものとなりつつあるようですが、それに伴い国際石油、
ガス価格はさらに高騰の兆しを見せています。　最悪の場合でも、３０年前の第一次
石油危機のような事態は起こらないと思いますが、不況に苦しむ日本経済にとって
は、
とりわけ原子力発電が低迷しているこの時期、エネルギー安全保障上また１つ大きな
不安材料を抱え込むことになるのは確かです。

次にご紹介する文章は、昨日の朝日新聞の経済記事（国内でトイレット・ペーパーや
ティシュー・ペーパーの価格が急騰しているという内容）に関連して、小生の知り合
い
で日本通の外国人エコノミストが書いたもので、現在の日本のエネルギー状況を非常
に簡潔に分かり易く表現しています。　中学(上級）や高校の生徒でも分かる程度で
す
から、英語の授業などに使っていただければ幸いです（これは学校の先生方への
お願い）。政府も電力会社も、ただ節電を呼びかけるだけでなく、なぜ節電が必要な
のか、もっと分かり易く説明するべきでしょう。

金子熊夫
**********************************************

The Japanese version of the Asahi Shimbun had an article on their
economics pages today on the rapid price rises in toilet paper and
tissue paper (Kleenex in the USA).

The article is intriguing because it brings back memories of the
great "toilet paper panic" in the 1970s during the oil shocks. Then,
housewives mobbed supermarkets to hoard, of all things, toilet
paper. Stores sold out of supplies by ten o'clock...it was a very
bizarre scene.

I found the article intriguing, not for the reasons Mr. Stonehill
mentioned, but as an early warning indicator that soaring prices of
imported oil may be beginning to affect domestic prices in Japan.

The price hikes by the paper companies ostensibly reflect both
coordinated production cuts as the industry consolidates, and a
focus by these companies from expanson to profit margins. On the
other hand, crude oil prices are already up 78% from late 2001, and
paper companies are heavy consumers of energy. The impending
war in Iraq might last longer than expected, and major terrorist
attacks could take place in many parts of the world. Oil prices
could turn very volatile depending on the situation, with crude prices
rising to over $40/barrel. OPEC decided to raise the maximum
output level to 24.5 million barrels. But taking the production cut in
Venezuela into account, actual output is some 22.2 million barrels,
which is quite low, and US crude inventories are at 10-year lows.

Strategically, the Japanese government has been slow to look for
alternative sources of oil in the event that a US invasion of Iraq
seriously interrupts oil exports. Some 88% of Japan's oil supplies
are sourced from the Middle East, and Japan pays some JPY100
billion yen a year in premium rates to import oil. This compares to a
US dependency on Middle East oil of 20%.

Exacerbating the tight international supply situation is the nuclear
plant cover-up scandals by Tokyo Electric Power, who has shut
down nuclear power plants as a result. The electric power
companies are already moving to raise rates in April-June because
of not only rising oil, but rising prices of LNG and coal. A
combination of; a) prolonged military action in Iraq, and b) a hot
summer in Japan could lead to a severe energy shortage in the late
summer. Japan's annual power demand usually peaks during the
first half of August, one of the hottest times of the year and when
people nationwide extensively use air-conditioners and watch the
highly popular annual high school baseball tournament on TV.

In this regard, the price of toilet paper does bear watching...