Subject: EEE会議（北朝鮮の再処理再開問題）
Date: Mon, 24 Mar 2003 10:49:25 +0900
From: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位殿

北朝鮮は、米国がイラク戦争に没頭している間に一気に核兵器やミサイル開発を
進めるのか、それともしばらくおとなしく静観するのか。先般米国CIAのTenet長官
は、
北朝鮮はすでに６−７発分のプルトニウムを分離しているとの観測を明らかにしまし
たが、実際にはそんなにスムーズには進んでいないのではないかという見方もあり
ます。長年中断していた再処理工場を再稼動するのはそんなに簡単ではないはず
です。　しかし、一旦再処理を再開したら、問題の解決は一層困難になるでしょう。
次にご紹介するワシントン・ポスト紙（３月２０日付け）でもこの点を指摘していま
す。　
ご参考まで。 皆様の見方を是非ご披露してください。
金子熊夫
******************************************

N. Korea Stymied On Plutonium Work
Reprocessing Lab Called Antiquated

By Glenn Kessler and Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, March 20, 2003; Page A24


North Korea appears to be having trouble restarting a nuclear reprocessing
facility that would separate plutonium for weapons from spent fuel rods,
according to administration officials with access to recent intelligence.

The Bush administration had been bracing for the reclusive communist regime
to
time the start-up of the facility to coincide with the war with Iraq. But
despite feverish activity that can be observed around the site, officials
believe the North Koreans have been stymied in their rush to begin creating
the
raw material needed for nuclear weapons.

"They are working 24/7," a senior administration official said. "But it is
not
going as fast as they wanted to."

The situation has raised concerns among officials that North Korea would
take
other provocative steps during the conflict with Iraq. Earlier this month,
North
Korean fighter jets intercepted a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance plane in
international airspace over the Sea of Japan, which some officials
interpreted
as an attempt to kidnap the crew and force the United States to begin direct
talks.

Officials said the reprocessing facility, a radiochemistry lab, is built
with
antiquated, poorly functioning equipment that is difficult for the North
Koreans
to replace. The lab is adjacent to the 5-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon that
the
North Koreans recently restarted.

"They do not have cutting-edge technology," said another senior
administration
official familiar with the situation. He said steam has been seen
intermittently
coming out of the power plant that sits next to the six-story radiochemistry
facility, which is based on a U.S. system developed in the 1950s. "They
definitely are trying hard," he said.

North Korean officials have insisted the reactor, which had been shuttered
as
part of a 1994 agreement with the Clinton administration, is needed to
produce
electricity for the power-starved nation because the United States and its
allies cut off fuel shipments late last year. U.S. experts, however, say the
5-megawatt plant is not large enough to provide significant electrical power
and
could only be intended to produce plutonium for weapons.

Robert Alvarez, a nuclear expert who as deputy assistant secretary of energy
for
materials asset management and national security analysis in the Clinton
administration visited Yongbyon to work out details of the 1994 agreement,
said
the North Koreans are working with 1950s nuclear technology. He said the
5-megawatt reactor is a 1956 British design that in part still uses vacuum
tubes
rather than modern components. Even when operating it broke down frequently,
he
said.

He also said the reprocessing plant was "in the early stages of initial
start-up
when its activities were frozen in 1994." Trial runs would be needed before
it
could restart, and "it will likely require a significant amount of
'hands-on'
operation that normally is done with more advanced remote controls in other
countries."

Such operations in human hands generally result in spills, leaks and
failures
during the complex steps of extracting and purifying plutonium, Alvarez
said.

While other experts have talked about the North Koreans being able to
extract
enough plutonium to make five or six bombs within months, Alvarez said these
estimates were based on how modern, U.S. reprocessing plants operate. He
said
the much older, simpler North Korean facility, using older technology, could
take "a span of several months to a year."

U.S. intelligence is closely monitoring the Yongbyon site from satellites
and
from aerial and surface scientific collectors that measure the effluent from
the
facilities. One clue to the return to operation of the reprocessing facility
would be a brownish plume, according to one scientist.

The United States and North Korea have been in a standoff since October,
when
North Korean officials admitted to pursuing a covert program to produce
weapons-grade enriched uranium in violation of the 1994 pact. The Bush
administration demanded that North Korea dismantle its nuclear weapons
programs
before any negotiations could take place, and subsequently cut off shipments
of
fuel oil that were part of the pact. North Korea then evicted United Nations
nuclear inspectors and dismantled monitoring equipment at the plant, and
withdrew from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The administration has insisted that any discussions with North Korea over
its
nuclear ambitions take place within a multilateral forum that would include
other key countries in the region. The administration has been unable to win
much support for that approach from those nations, which have pressed the
United
States to begin direct talks.

One official said that the United States has "gotten vibes" that North
Korea's
opposition to multilateral talks may be softening. But another official said
that despite proposals and ideas floated by the administration, North Korea
had
given no indication that any multilateral venue is acceptable.

"It would make political dialogue and finding a diplomatic way forward much
more
difficult if they've started the reprocessing facility," Secretary of State
Colin L. Powell said earlier this week.


c 2003 The Washington Post Company