Subject: EEE会議（イラク戦争と日本のエネルギー安全保障）
Date: Wed, 2 Apr 2003 11:54:52 +0900
From: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位殿

イラク戦争で日本政府が米国支持を鮮明にしたのは、小泉首相も公言しているように
日米同盟重視がベースになっていると思いますが、北朝鮮対策以外に、とくに日本の
エネルギー安全保障(オイルタンカー・ルート防衛を含む）の観点が重要だと考えま
す。この点については小生も当EEE会議でしばしば指摘してきましたが、最近岡崎久
彦氏（外交評論家、元サウジアラビア大使）がこのことを論文（３月２７日付けEEE
メールでも紹介）で強調したのに対し、海外では、果たして日本は日本人自身が考え
ているほど「エネルギー資源小国」なのか、対イラク開戦で米国に反対したフランス
だってエネルギー小国ではないか、という批判が出てきております。小生が参加して
いる米国のEメール会議の一部をご披露します。ご参考まで。異論や補足意見があれ
ばどうぞ。
金子熊夫
***************************************************

１．岡崎氏の意見（抜粋）

>>[following are Amb. Okazaki's personal views -- ed.]
>>
>>No Room For Choosing　（日本は対米支持以外に選択肢なし）
>>
>>When considering safeguarding the nation's future, this natural
>>resources-poor island nation has no alternative but to maintain
>>cooperation with the Anglo-Americans who prevail over the Seven
>>Seas. That is the fact of life in the 150 years since Japan opened
>>the gate to the outside world.
>

２．これに対する反論１

France seems quite capable of pursuing a path relatively
independent of "the Anglo-Americans who prevail over the Seven
Seas." Since I'm an historian, not a geographer, could someone
clue me in as to the natural resources that France has that permit
it to pursue an independent course....

３．もう一つの反論

I too am curious about how resource poor Japan is. As Japan is
capable of producing about 3% of the oil it needs and 5% of the
Natural gas, in addition to having abundant hydroelectric resources,
and the third highest level of nuclear reactors installed in the world
(USA 107, France about 80 Japan about 55), I fail to see how
Japan lacks natural resources. Energy from biomass and
windpower are virtually untouched here. Japan generates a pathetic
300 Megawatts of electricity from windpower as opposed to India,
which generates 1780 Megawatts from windpower or Germany with
4800 Megawatts.

Japan is no richer nor any poorer in natural resources than most
European nations are. At the same time, it is apparent that Japan
has failed to sufficiently exploit those which are available. this is
hardly the basis to build a foreign policy on.

W.T.Stonehill

４．上記に対する金子の反論(４月２日）

A short comment on Mr. Stonehill's posting regarding Japan's natural energy
resources:

Japan's Proven Oil Reserves (1/1/02E): 59 million barrels
Oil Production (January 2002E): 73,620 barrels per day (bbl/d), of which
6,000 bbl/d is crude oil
Oil Consumption (2002E): 5.4 million bbl/d
Net Oil Imports (2002E): 5.3 million bbl/d

( Source: US Departement of Energy's EIA--Country Analysis Briefs)

Thus, Japan's oil production is 1.3%, not so much as 3%. All the rest must
be imported from abroad (mostly the Middle East), which means that at least
as far as oil is concerned, Japan is indeed one of the resource-poorest
among major industrial countries.

To make the matter even worse, Japan's oil import is increasing at present
as a result of the temporary shutdown of all nuclear reactors of the Tokyo
Electric Power Company for the well-known reasons. A major breakdown of
electricity seems inevitable this summer for the central Japan served by
Tepco.

Another aspect we must not lose sight of is that Japan's imported oil must
come via a long sea-lane, about 13,000km, through such volatile areas as the
Hormuz Strait, Indian Ocean, Malacca Straits, South and East China Seas full
of troubles and conflicts. Japan's energy vulnerability, obviously bigger
than most of European countries, is yet another reason why Japan attaches
importance to the US-Japan alliance.

Kumao Kaneko,
Tokyo.