Subject: EEE会議（日本は「エネルギー資源小国」か？）
Date: Thu, 3 Apr 2003 07:44:54 +0900
From: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位殿

昨日、イラク戦争に関連して、日本は果たして「エネルギー資源小国」か否かに関す
る外国人の見方とこれに対する小生の反論などをご紹介しましたが、その後さらにい
ろいろな意見が出てきました。小生は（岡崎久彦氏の所論を敷衍して）今回の日本政
府のイラク戦争への態度決定と日本のエネルギー安全保障問題が少なからず関係して
いるという視点を強調したつもりなのに、どうも議論がうまくかみ合わないようで
す。ただ、中東石油への依存度を下げようとせず、風力や太陽光利用に十分な補助政
策を取らず、省エネも単に口先だけの日本人に対する批判も強いようです。皆さんは
どうお考えでしょうか？
金子熊夫

******************************************************

>Thus, Japan's oil production is 1.3%, not so much as 3%. All the
>rest must be imported from abroad (mostly the Middle East),
which
>means that at least as far as oil is concerned, Japan is indeed one
>of the resource-poorest among major industrial countries.

My figures come from Japanese sources. What Mr. Kaneko is also
ignoring is Natural Gas, which Japan has. Neither Germany, Italy,
France or Spain have any oil, so Japan is quite far from being "...as
far as oil is concerned, Japan is indeed one of the resource-poorest
among major industrial countries." Compared to either of these
countries it is quite well off.
>
>
>To make the matter even worse, Japan's oil import is increasing at
>present as a result of the temporary shutdown of all nuclear
>reactors of the Tokyo Electric Power Company for the well-known
>reasons. A major breakdown of electricity seems inevitable this
>summer for the central Japan served by Tepco.

Japan has made little or no efforts to promote conservation. The use
of double paned windows and insulation--in this case for air
conditioning, not heating--are completely unknown in the central
Japan area. Furthermore, there have been no attempts to employ
other types of cooling systems such as evaporation type coolers
(which are available to a limited degree in Japan through mail order)
or ceiling fans. Both of these simple technologies remain rarities in
the Central Japan area. Even such things as effect sunshades
(sudare) or Western style window shades (awnings) are nowhere as
widely used in the central Japan area as they should be.

Not only have the various problems with the reactors lined up Tokyo
for almost certain brown outs this summer, the the complete lack of
any Japanese government sponsored conservation policies have
almost guaranteed severe problems within a few months.
>
>
>Another aspect we must not lose sight of is that Japan's imported
>oil must come via a long sea-lane, about 13,000km, through such
>volatile areas as the Hormuz Strait, Indian Ocean, Malacca
Straits,
>South and East China Seas full of troubles and conflicts.

Japan's own diplomatic policies are fully to blame for this. There has
been no attempt to diversify supplies. With 90% of Japan's oil
coming from the Middle East, one can only be left to note that
Japan is importing almost nothing from Africa, South America or
Russia.

W.T.Stonehill

============================================

>Thus, Japan's oil production is 1.3%, not so much as 3%. All the
>rest must be imported from abroad (mostly the Middle East), which
>means that at least as far as oil is concerned, Japan is indeed one
>of the resource-poorest among major industrial countries.

I would like to see some hard data. For example, what percentage
of German or Spanish petroleum consumption is based on
resources found within the borders of Germany or Spain?

Further, while fossil fuel usage in the US, particularly for motor fuel,
is extravagant to the point of being obscene, for a country that
regularly trots out the "no natural resources" formula, Japan would
seem to me to be in the position of the kettle calling the pot black.
I'm a cyclist. One of the things that always amazes me in Japan in
the summer is the number of Japanese sitting in parked cars with
the motors racing to drive the air conditioning. This extravagance is
not just a summer phenomenon. Just this morning I was looking
out of my apartment window and marvelling at the number of
absolutely massive "off road" vehicles on the road in my part of
suburban Tokyo (Koganei on the border with Fuchu). People
around here seem to favor vehicles that could navigate the Khyber
Pass without breathing hard just to drive two blocks (or less) to the
local Tokyo CoOp. And, during the summer, they'll leave the air
conditioning on full blast while they are inside shopping where the
air conditioning is also running at a level that would give a polar bear
or penguin no reason to complain.

>Another aspect we must not lose sight of is that Japan's imported
>oil must come via a long sea-lane, about 13,000km, through such
>volatile areas as the Hormuz Strait, Indian Ocean, Malacca Straits,
>South and East China Seas full of troubles and conflicts. Japan's
>energy vulnerability, obviously bigger than most of European
>countries, is yet another reason why Japan attaches importance to
>the US-Japan alliance.

As I've said before, I'm an historian and not a geographer, but if
memory serves me, there are various substantial sources of oil and
gas rather closer to home including those in what was called
Karufuto when it was under Japanese control. Am I wrong in
thinking that the fact that Japan is currently dependent on middle
eastern petroleum is a dependency based on political and pricing
considerations rather than absolute physical necessity? What, for
example, has Japan done in terms of resource development in
cooperation with Russia and China?

E.H. Kinmonth

==============================================

>W.T. Stonehill writes as follows:

>.....As Japan is
>capable of producing about 3% of the oil it needs and 5% of the
>Natural gas, in addition to having abundant hydroelectric resources,
>and the third highest level of nuclear reactors installed in the world
>(USA 107, France about 80 Japan about 55), I fail to see how
>Japan lacks natural resources. Energy from biomass and
>windpower are virtually untouched here. Japan generates a pathetic
>300 Megawatts of electricity from windpower as opposed to India,
>which generates 1780 Megawatts from windpower or Germany with
>4800 Megawatts.
>
>Japan is no richer nor any poorer in natural resources than most
>European nations are. At the same time, it is apparent that Japan
>has failed to sufficiently exploit those which are available. this is
>hardly the basis to build a foreign policy on.
>
>W.T.Stonehill
>

This is mistaken on two fronts. First, nuclear power is not a 'natural
resource,' nor is the development of other sources of energy such
as windpower--no matter how desirable these might be. "Natural
resources" refer to those resources present in nature, not those that
are generated by humans. Second, the actual data on natural
resources makes it clear that, even though the Japanese
government does repeat the point ad nauseum, on this case they
are in fact correct. I'm not sure where Mr. Stonehill gets the figure
that Japan is capable of producing about 3% of the oil it needs, but
the latest official data shows that Japan imports 99.7% of its
petroleum. (I'm not sure if Mr. Stonehill confuses 3% with 0.3%, but
even 3% capacity, if true, would put Japan at the low end of the
industrialized world for domestic production.) More importantly,
Japan lacks most other natural resources, including, just for
starters, iron ore, bauxite, nickel, manganese, phosphorous ore,
copper and chrome. In most of these cases, Japan is the OECD's
number one importer of each item.

If Mr. Stonehill has some other actual evidence in mind for his claim
that Japan is no richer nor any poorer in natural resources than
most European nations, I would welcome the data.

T.J. Pempel
Director, Institute of East Asian Studies University of
California Berkeley

=============================================

I rushed to my Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in
Japan - published by Institute of Eenrgy Economics in Tokyo. Last
issue on my shelf is 2000. This gives 1998 figures for indigenous
proudction as a percentage of total consumption as follows:

Oil: 0.3% (that is, 3/10ths of 1%)

Natural and town gas (overwhelmingly the former): 3.0%

I'm not certain what the concept of 'is capable of producing' means.
Obviously, Japan could indigenously produce considerably more of
these fuels if production were heavily subsidised. The same would
be true of 'renewable' sources, such as wind, if these were as
heavily subsidised as they are in several European countries,
notably Germany. Germany also continues dramatically to
subsidise domestic coal, something that both Japan and the UK
have essentially learnt is a dead end.

It's important to distinguish between oil (and gas) import
dependency and total-energy import dependency, because of the
critical role of electricity, which is only partially linked to these fuels.

I have always understood that RoK just pips Japan as being the
most total-energy import dependent of the major industrial powers.
The key consideration is probably not just import independence for
transport fuels - only a few favoured countries, like Norway and the
UK, are in that situation - but also import dependence for fuels for
electricity generation.

W T Stonehill confuses energy conservation across all sectors, with
conservation in the domestic sector alone. His observations have
validity for the domestic sector (curious given that domestic energy
prices are so high in Japan) but Japan has been a world leader in
energy efficiency in the industrial and transport sectors (much
higher proportion of rail traffic and smaller engined cars are
essentially for the latter). This explains why the 'embedded energy'
per $ of product is so much lower in Japan than in the US. However,
it must be admitted that there is probably some 'export' of energy
demand - ie Japan imports high energy-embedded raw materials
from outside (timber, food, semi-finished metals, etc).

Oh, one last thing; I have always understood that successive
Japanese governments have been so paranoid about energy
dependency at least in part because of memory of when Japan was
subjected, in the late 1930s, to energy embargoes by a certain
country. This led Japan to decide that it needed to expand to
secure oil resources and to take pre-emptive action against those
who seemed determined to prevent it from securing energy
resources on the open market.

Prof David Cope,
Director Parliamentary Office of Science and
Technology Houses of Parliament London, SW1P 3JA, England,
United Kingdom

＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝

>industrialized world for domestic production.) More importantly,
>Japan lacks most other natural resources, including, just for
>starters, iron ore, bauxite, nickel, manganese, phosphorous ore,
>copper and chrome. In most of these cases, Japan is the OECD's
>number one importer of each item.*

I cannot speak to each of these, but Japan certainly has copper.
Perhaps the longest and most famous struggle over pollution in
Japanese history was that involving the Ashio copper mine. If
memory serves me, when the Furukawa interests closed the copper
mine, it was not because there was no copper left, just that it was
not competitive at current world prices. The Ashio copper mine
pollution struggle is only one of a number of such incidents involving
natural resource extraction in Japan. The "itai itai" (it hurts, it hurts)
disease was, if memory serves me, the result of effluent from
cadmium mining operations in Japan. I don't have the resources at
hand to check, but again, I think I am safe in saying that any
general history of the Edo period will take up both gold and iron
mining in Japan. Japan does, moreover, have substantial coal
deposits even if they are not competitive at current world prices (just
as British coal is not competitive at current world prices). Indeed,
coal EXPORTS are generally cited as a major contributor to modern
Japanese economic development.

Again, while I claim no expertise in this area, I would assume that a
very large fraction of the natural resources Japan imports goes into
manufactured goods that are exported. Further, if you've got a
mercantilist regime that encourages bringing iron ore to Japan to
make steel rather than buying lower cost steel from neighboring
Korea, it would seem to me that you'll be importing more natural
resources than say another regime that also builds ships but goes
for market price steel rather than trying to capture everything for
domestic producers.

It's been years since I've read anything on this and my memory may
be failing, but I dimly recall that bauxite is a case in point.
Aluminum is produced from bauxite using massive amounts of
electricity such that aluminum is sometimes called "solidified
electricity" or something like that. In theory, bauxite should be
converted to aluminum someplace where electricity is inexpensive,
not someplace where it is very, very expensive like Japan. Perhaps
I am completely out of my depth, but if Japan is a major importer of
bauxite, it is not because it lacks bauxite (I haven't checked, but I'll
bet you a fiver the UK does not have much bauxite either), but
because of policies that favor the conversion of bauxite into
aluminum within Japan rather than external to Japan.

E.H. Kinmonth