Subject: EEE会議（北朝鮮核問題に関する米国の見方）
Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2003 19:10:31 +0900
From: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位殿

イラク戦争後の米国の標的はシリアか北朝鮮か。北朝鮮側も一段と危機感を募らせて
おり、慎重に次の手を模索している模様です。対する米国側では、イラク開戦前と同
じく北に対しても、国防総省を中心とするタカ派と国務省を中心とするハト派の間で
意見が割れているようです。
本日のNY Times紙が明らかにした部内メモによれば、タカ派は、この際中国と一緒に
なって金正日政権をサダムフセインのように、一気に潰してしまう作戦を考えている
ようです。しかし、この案には、金体制の急激な崩壊によって発生する大量難民の中
国領への流入を最も警戒する中国政府が乗ってこないだろう等々の問題があり、そん
なにうまく行かないという反論もつよく、ブッシュ政権内の両派の対立は相変わらず
激しい模様です。この分では２３日北京で開催予定の米朝中３者会談も予断を許しま
せん。詳細は下記の記事でどうぞ。
金子熊夫

****************************************************
Administration Divided Over North Korea
By DAVID E. SANGER


ASHINGTON, April 20 ・Just days before President Bush approved the opening
of negotiations with North Korea over its nuclear program, Defense Secretary
Donald H. Rumsfeld circulated to key members of the administration a
Pentagon memorandum proposing a radically different approach: the United
States, the memo argued, should team up with China to press for the ouster
of North Korea's leadership.

Mr. Rumsfeld's team, administration officials said, was urging diplomatic
pressure for changing the government, not a military solution. But the
classified memo, drafted by officials who are deeply opposed to opening
talks that could eventually end up benefiting North Korea economically,
shows how the handling of the crisis has become the newest subject of
internal struggle over how to pursue Mr. Bush's determination to stop the
spread of nuclear arms and other unconventional weapons.

Officials on all sides of the arguments say that, with the fall of President
Saddam Hussein of Iraq, the internal battles that once surrounded the policy
on Iraq are re-emerging over North Korea.

White House officials say a change of government in North Korea is not
official administration policy ・and some suggest that the secret memorandum
was circulated for discussion among high-level officials, including Vice
President Dick Cheney, and may not represent Mr. Rumsfeld's view. Mr.
Rumsfeld's spokeswoman, Victoria Clarke, said today that the defense
secretary completely supported the president's diplomatic strategy for
disarming North Korea.

But the memo's main argument, that Washington's goal should be the collapse
of Kim Jong Il's government, seems at odds with the State Department
approach of convincing Mr. Kim, in the words of one senior administration
official, "that we're not trying to take him out."

The memorandum was described by several officials who have seen it,
including critics of the Pentagon approach who say it is ludicrous to think
that China ・which is acting as intermediary between North Korea and the
United States ・would join in any American-led effort to bring about the
fall of the North Korean government.

"The last thing the Chinese want," said a senior administration official
dealing with the delicate diplomacy, "is a collapse of North Korea that will
create a flood of refugees into China and put Western allies on the Chinese
border."

President Bush said today that China's willingness to intervene in the
negotiations ・along with close coordination with Japan and South Korea
about dealing with the North Korean government ・meant that there was "a
good chance of convincing North Korea to abandon her ambitions to develop
nuclear arsenals."

But some in the administration liken the new effort to force North Korea to
give up its nuclear weapons to Mr. Bush's attempt last September to force
Iraq to open up to full inspections: while the White House believes that it
is worth a try, few in the administration believe it will work. Mr. Bush and
Mr. Rumsfeld have carefully avoided ruling out a military strike on North
Korea, though they have both publicly insisted that this is a moment for
diplomacy and that no military action is currently contemplated.

Even those who urged the administration to talk to North Korea, like Senator
Richard G. Lugar, Republican of Indiana and the chairman of the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, say the threat of military action, no matter
how risky, must underpin any talks. "I think that that always has to be
there as a very strong possibility," Mr. Lugar said today on the NBC News
program "Meet the Press."

Hard-liners in the Pentagon ・and some at the White House ・say that the
United States should use its speedy victory in Iraq to drive home to North
Korea that it could meet the same fate if it ignores Mr. Bush's demand that
it dismantle its nuclear weapons program, ship its spent nuclear fuel out of
the country and open up to intrusive inspections.

Mr. Powell's approach, officials familiar with his thinking say, is to offer
North Korea assurances that the United States is not trying to undermine its
government, but to make clear that until the nuclear programs are
dismantled, the country will get no aid and investment. Mr. Powell received
final approval for his approach in a meeting with President Bush last week,
a session Mr. Rumsfeld did not attend.

"There's a sense in the Pentagon that Powell got this arranged while
everyone was distracted with Iraq," said one intelligence official. "And now
there is a race over who will control the next steps."

North Korea is the next case in Mr. Bush's policy of zero tolerance for
"rogue states" with such weapons, because unlike Iraq it has two active
nuclear programs. The Central Intelligence Agency believes that the country
may have developed two weapons before a 1994 nuclear-freeze agreement. North
Korea continues to sell missiles to Iran, Syria, Pakistan and other states
around the world, and Mr. Powell's deputy, Richard L. Armitage, told
Congress earlier this year that if the country made weapons-grade plutonium,
it would probably sell it.

On Friday, in its first explicit comment on the Iraq war, North Korea said
it had learned something from the fall of Mr. Hussein. "The Iraqi war
teaches a lesson that in order to prevent a war and defend the security of a
country and the sovereignty of a nation," North Korea said in a statement,
"it is necessary to have a powerful physical deterrent."

The talks scheduled for this week were nearly scuttled on Friday when, in
that same statement, North Korea appeared to suggest ・according to its own
English-language translation of a government statement ・that it had already
begun reprocessing its spent nuclear fuel into bomb-grade plutonium. That
would mean that Mr. Bush was entering into talks with the nuclear clock
ticking. Unless a quick deal was struck, North Korea would be producing
weapons-grade material within weeks.

But by midday Friday, American, Japanese and South Korean officials said
that when read in the original Korean, the statement said that North Korea
was poised to begin producing plutonium, not that it had done so. Today the
White House said it was consulting with its allies about whether to go ahead
with the talks, scheduled to begin Wednesday.