Subject: EEE会議（北朝鮮核問題と日米同盟）
Date: Sat, 26 Apr 2003 01:46:36 +0900
From: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>

各位殿

北朝鮮核問題が一段と緊迫化するにつれ、改めて日米同盟（核の傘を含む）のあり方
と日本の今後の対応が厳しく問われています。とりわけ北朝鮮の200発近いノドン・
ミサイルが既に日本全域を射程距離に捉えている（しかし、米本土に届く長距離ミサ
イルは未完成）という現実の問題です。次の小論は、日本人がそうした現実に正面か
ら向き合うことを求めています。論者は、IHT紙の辛口のコラムニストとしても定評
がある在日の外交評論家。ご参考まで。
金子熊夫

***********************************************

Mr Stonehill drew our attention to the Ashai report of 23 April
referring to the apparent explosion of a North Korean Taepodong 2
long range missile during engine tests. (Below)

After more than a week, the Asahi (25 April) has finally reported a
statement by USFK (US Forces Korea) that North Korea is now
believed to have 175-200 Nodongs, rather than the 100 previously
believed.

So North Korea, which making ever-more bellicose noises about its
nuclear arsenal, can target all of Japan with up to 200 Nodongs,
hidden in caves, while its missiles cannot yet reach the continental
US.

(The Nodongs can of course reach US bases in Japan. Indeed, one
of the purposes of developing the missile was to target US bases
here in the event of another Korean war, to inhibit US ability to
reinforce South Korea.)

Not surprisingly, we are now seeing divisions opening up among the
Japanese conservatives which were papered over when Japan
signed on to the NPT. Ishihara has always pushed the Gaullist line -
that no country should put its faith in nuclear protection by another,
because it risks abandonment in a crisis.

That was not a persuasive argument during the Cold War, because
the Japanese government saw little risk of abandonment. US bases
in Japan were vital to the US global stategy of Containment of the
USSR. While mindless pacifism prevailed among Japan's
intellectuals etc, the government in Tokyo operated on the basis of
cold calculation of interest. The adoption of the ruling against
collective self defence, made in 1972 to appease China, was
additional reassurance - avoiding any risk of 'entanglement'- ie that
America's enemies would become Japan's enemies too.

All that changed with the winning of the Cold War.

Currently, the US still needs bases in Japan, but not as much as
before, and not as much as many Japanese seem to think.

The crisis in the US-ROK alliance should also be of great concern
in Japan. But reading the Japanese press one would hardly know
that.

Or realise that Japan is on the spot now in a way it has not been for
the last fifty years. The days of being able to avoid hard choices
are now over. And there are a number of tests looming, the earliest
of which could be Japan's willingness to help interdict NK ships
carrying missile parts, drugs etc.

Not much further down the track is missile defence. As Douglas
Feith made clear late last year - ie the subtext of his remarks - if
Japan is unwilling to participate, the US will go it alone. And it can
do so, not least because it has Guam.

Moreover, the outrageous behaviour of France, Russia and China on
the UN Security Council in relation to Iraq has done much to fuel
US unilateralist instincts. So of course has Roh Myoo-hyun. He's
now backpeddling furiously, but it's too late.

Readers of the Forum would also be well advised to contemplate
the kinds of reform that Rumseld is proposing for the US military.

Robyn Lim