送信者: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>
件名 : EEE会議（Re:北朝鮮核問題の行方）
日時 : 2003年4月29日 9:47

各位殿

イラク戦争での圧勝に勢いを得て、米国は北朝鮮に対しても一段と強硬な態度を打ち
出しつつあるように見えます。北の出方いかんによっては、一気に「第二次朝鮮戦
争」の危険性も排除されていないと思われます。それにしては、日本国内の反応は今
ひとつピリッとしません。「日本のサラリーマンがパチンコにつぎ込んだ金が北朝鮮
のノドン・ミサイルに化けて日本に襲い掛かってくる」という米国人の指摘はあなが
ち見当違いではないでしょう。　次にご披露するのは、当会議でしばしば紹介してい
る在日のタカ派国際政治学者（IHT紙のコラムニスト）の意見で、傾聴に値すると考
えます。ご参考まで。
金子熊夫

*****************************************

In relation to Victor Cha's article in the Japan Times of 24 April,
Rumsfeld has indicated that he doesn't think Japan is doing enough
to crack down on the flow of money, drugs etc to North Korea. As
Peter Tasker has reminded the Forum, Japanese salarymen still
face the prospect of their pachinko losses coming back at them in
the form of North Korea's Nodongs!

I have also not seen any reporting in Japan of the significant
statement recently by Senator Lugar, the new Chairman of Senate
Foreign Relations. Although a moderate Republican, Lugar said
that war might be necessary if North Korea developed nuclear
weapons. And that was before the US-China-NK meeting in Beijing,
where North Korea brought proceedings to a halt by flaunting its
nuclear weapons. (Having embarrassed the host also by sending a
relatively junior official.)

Any analysis of the Korean crisis must start with the understanding
that the US cannot tolerate North Korea developing and selling
nuclear weapons. Whatever it takes.

That does not seem too well understood in Japan.

Nor has the Japanese press given its readers much inkling of what
is going on in the ROK-US alliance, or what's left of it.

North Korea has only one high card - its ability to hold Seoul
hostage by means of artillery and rocket strikes on the South
Korean capital. Currently, the Dear Leader also holds US forward-
deployed ground forces hostage for the same reason. Even though
they are well dug in.

So Rumsfeld is taking away the Dear Leader's only ace, by moving -
with some despatch- to remove the Second Infantry Division from
its vulnerable 'tripwire' position just south of the DMZ. Once that
has been effected, the US can make a credible threat against North
Korea's nuclear facilities.

On 25 April, just as the talks were convening in Beijing, USFK (US
Forces Korea) indicated that 2ID would be moved to Osan, the air
base just south of Seoul. Another 'hub' would be at Daegu and
Busan on the south coast. Rumsfeld is thus indicating that the US
is preparing to fight a future Korean war the way it wants to fight it,
not as a reprise of the 1950-53 Korean war. In the three week war
that defeated Iraq, the US fought the war it wanted to fight, not the
war its enemy sought to impose upon it.

The South Koreans, when yelling Yankee Go Home, should have
been more careful what they wished for. Since the ROK has been
long pressing for a reduction of the US military 'footprint', it is no
position to resist when Rumsfeld says he intends to reconfigure US
ground forces. And the US is setting a cracking pace in its talks
with South Korea. The first round has already been held, and the
next is scheduled for early May.

Moreover, once 2ID is out of harm's way, south of the Han river,
North Korea cannot threaten Seoul without also threatening vital
Chinese economic interests in South Korea.

The movement, in March, of nuclear-capable B-52s and B-1
bombers to Guam was also meant to send a message to the Dear
Leader.

It's been easy enough for China to mouth the mantra that it doesn't
want to see the Korean peninsula nuclearized. China will be soon
on the spot to act against the Dear Leader, or face the risk of
another war in Korea.

Robyn Lim