送信者: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>
件名 : EEE会議（２５年後の世界のエネルギー状況：米国DOE/EIAの予測）
日時 : 2003年5月3日 1:02


各位殿

世界のエネルギー消費量は次の２５年間で５８％増加するが、その大半
は、中国、インド、韓国などアジアの開発途上国になるだろう。エネルギーの中で最
も増加率が大きいのは天然ガス（増加率は100％）で、エネルギー全体の28％に達す
る。次は石油（増加率55％）で、全体の38％を占める（日糧では7,700万バレルから
１億1,900万バレルに増加）。他方、原子力のシェアは現在19%だが、2025年には12%
に減少する。ただし、アジア（とくに中国、インド、日本、韓国など）では原発の新
設が続き、合計で4,500万キロワット（45GW)分の増加となるだろう。

と、これは本日発表された米国エネルギー省エネルギー情報局(EIA)の
長期予測
です。詳細は以下のとおり。ご参考まで。
金子熊夫

*********************************************

ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
MAY 1, 2003

Emerging Asia Drives World Energy Use in the International Energy Outlook
2003

Worldwide consumption of commercial energy is projected to grow by 58
percent over the next two and one-half decades, according to the reference
case projection of the International Energy Outlook 2003 (IEO2003)
released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The
IEO2003 expects much of the growth to occur in the developing world, with
China, India, and South Korea leading the way, as their consumption
increasingly resembles that of the industrialized world.

Expectations for growth in Central and South America have been lowered
substantially from those reflected in past editions of the Outlook.
Political and economic problems surfacing among the nations of the region
in the past year have tempered the previous, more optimistic outlook for
their development. Unrest in Venezuela, an Argentine economy that remains
in crisis, and renewal of an aggressive campaign against insurgency groups
by the Colombian government, all contribute to uncertainty about the
region. These uncertainties have led to lower projections of the region's
energy demand in this year's forecast. Whereas energy demand in Central
and South America was projected to grow by 3.8 percent per year between
1999 and 2020 in last year's report, the IEO2003 reference case projects
average annual growth of only 2.4 percent from 1999 to 2020.

Total world demand for oil is expected to rise by about 1.2 million
barrels per day in 2003, as national economies begin to recover from the
global economic slowdown in 2002. In the IEO2003 reference case
projection, world oil consumption increases from 77 million barrels per
day in 2001 to 119 million barrels per day in 2025, an annualized growth
rate of 1.8 percent. The increases in worldwide oil use projected in the
reference case would require an increase of 42 million barrels per day
over current productive capacity. OPEC [Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries] producers are expected to be the major source of
increased production, but non-OPEC supply is expected to remain
competitive, with major growth in offshore resources, especially in the
Caspian Basin, Latin America, and deepwater West Africa.

Other report highlights include:

-- Natural gas remains the fastest growing component of primary world
energy consumption. Over the IEO2003 forecast period, gas use is
projected to nearly double in the reference case, reaching 176 trillion
cubic feet in 2025. The natural gas share of total energy consumption is
projected to increase from 23 percent in 2001 to 28 percent in 2025, and
natural gas is expected to account for the largest increment in
electricity generation (accounting for 53 percent of the total increase in
energy use for electricity generation). Much of the projected growth in
natural gas consumption is in response to rising demand for natural gas to
fuel efficient new combined-cycle gas turbine power plants.

-- Carbon intensity -- the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per dollar of
gross domestic product (GDP) -- is projected to improve throughout the
world over the next two decades, although total carbon dioxide emissions
are projected to increase by 59 percent between 2001 and 2025. Steep
improvements in carbon intensity are projected for the transitional
economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (EE/FSU). In the
FSU, economic recovery from the upheavals resulting from the dissolution
of the Soviet Union is expected to continue throughout the forecast. The
FSU nations are also expected to replace old and inefficient capital stock
and increasingly use less carbon-intensive natural gas for electricity
generation and other end uses in place of more carbon-intensive oil and
coal.

-- Nuclear power accounted for 19 percent of the world's total electricity
supply in 2001. The IEO2003 reference case projects a drop in the nuclear
share of electricity, to 12 percent in 2025, as the current trend away
from nuclear power in most countries is expected to continue. Despite its
declining share of global electricity production, nuclear power will
continue to be a significant source of electricity. Life extensions,
higher capacity factors, and capacity upgrades are expected to offset some
of the capacity losses resulting from retirements. Further, some nations,
particularly in Asia, are expected to continue to build new nuclear units,
with China, India, Japan, and South Korea projected to add a combined 45
gigawatts between 2001 and 2025.

-- Renewable energy use worldwide is expected to increase by 56 percent
between 2001 and 2025, maintaining its 8 percent share of world commercial
energy consumption throughout the forecast period. Because fossil fuel
prices are expected to remain relatively low, renewables are not expected
to be widely competitive, and its share of energy use does not increase.
Much of the increase in renewable energy use is expected to be driven by
new, large-scale hydroelectric projects, particularly in developing Asian
countries.

-- World coal use has been in a period of generally slow growth since the
1980s, and this trend is expected to continue through the projection
period. Substantial declines in coal use are projected for Western
Europe, Eastern Europe, and the former Soviet Union, where natural gas is
increasingly being used for electricity generation; however, large
increases are projected for developing Asia, with China and India combined
accounting for 75 percent of the world's increment in coal use over the
forecast (on a Btu basis).

International Energy Outlook 2003 is available on EIA's Web Site at:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html. Printed copies of the report
will be available later this month from the U.S. Government Printing
Office, 202/512-1800, or through EIA's National Energy Information Center,
Room 1E-238, Forrestal Building, Washington, DC 20585, 202/586-8800.

(end text)