送信者: "kkaneko" <kkaneko@eagle.ocn.ne.jp>
件名 : EEE会議（北朝鮮核問題：ブッシュ大統領の政策転換？）
日時 : 2003年5月6日 9:31

各位殿

北朝鮮核問題ついては、果たして北朝鮮が（先般の北京での米朝中３者協議で述べた
ように）寧辺での再処理を完了したのかどうか、未だに不確かであり、米国ブッシュ
政権内でも今後北に対してどう対応すべきかタカ派とハト派の間で激論中のようです
が、本日のNew York Timesの記事によれば、ブッシュ大統領自身は、どうやら、北が
再処理によって兵器級プルトニウムを入手したかどうかとは別に、今後は北がプルト
ニウムを海外（とくに「ならず者国家」やテロリスト）に輸出することを阻止するこ
とに政策の重点を置く方向に傾いているとのことです。ということは、北朝鮮の核保
有自体はいまや阻止不可能とみているということで、もしそうだとすれば、これは１
９９３、４年にクリントン大統領が取った政策からの大幅な後退である、また、核自
体をそのままにしておいて輸出だけを禁止するのは実際に不可能であるとの批判が出
ている由。日本にとっても極めて重要な問題であると思いますので、少々長文です
が、同記事の全文をお目にかけます。ご参考まで。
金子熊夫

************************************************

Bush Shifts Focus to Nuclear Sales by North Korea

By DAVID E. SANGER

CAWFORD, Tex., May 4 ・Tacitly acknowledging that North Korea may not be
deterred from producing plutonium for nuclear weapons, President Bush is now
trying to marshal international support for preventing the country from
exporting nuclear material, American and foreign officials say.

Mr. Bush discussed the new approach on Saturday morning with Australia's
prime minister, John Howard, after the two men were given a lengthy briefing
at Mr. Bush's ranch by the chief American negotiator with North Korea, James
A. Kelly, officials said.




For a decade, the United States' declared policy has been that North Korea
would be prevented, by any means necessary, from producing plutonium or
highly enriched uranium. President Bill Clinton ordered the Pentagon to draw
up plans for a military strike when the North threatened to begin production
in 1994, but a nuclear freeze agreement was reached later that year.

Mr. Bush's new focus on blocking the sale of nuclear material to countries
or terrorist groups reflects intelligence officials' conclusion that they
cannot ascertain whether North Korea was bluffing when it claimed last month
that it had already reprocessed enough spent nuclear fuel to make many
weapons.

"The president said that the central worry is not what they've got, but
where it goes," said an official familiar with the talks between Mr. Bush
and Mr. Howard. "He's very pragmatic about it, and the reality is that we
probably won't know the extent of what they are producing. So the whole
focus is to keep the plutonium from going further."

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, in an appearance on the NBC News program
"Meet the Press," insisted today that the administration's long-term goal
was to force North Korea to dismantle all of its nuclear weapons programs.
He vowed that it would get no international aid unless its government
changed course.

"Everybody has now made it clear to North Korea that they will not find any
assistance coming to them from the region in terms of economic development,"
he said, "unless they abandon their nuclear weapons programs."

But in recent interviews, several American officials have said that it was
becoming clear that the policy that Mr. Clinton described in 1994 ・when he
warned that producing plutonium could result in an American attack to
destroy the nuclear facilities at Yongbyon ・was probably not sustainable
anymore.

South Korea's new president, Roh Moo Hyun, who will visit Washington for the
first time next week, "has made it clear he won't consider military action
of any kind," said one senior administration official. "It's a different
atmosphere than in 1994."

Another official who has discussed the issue with Mr. Bush said his thinking
was that the North Koreans "are looking to get us excited, to make us issue
declarations."

"And his answer to them is," the official added, `You're hungry, and you
can't eat plutonium.' "

Still, Mr. Bush's approach is a major gamble ・one that depends on superb
intelligence about North Korea's efforts to sell its weapons. So far,
though, the nuclear program has been what one American intelligence official
calls "the black hole of Asia."

American officials have apparently been unable to find new facilities they
believe North Korea is building ・presumably underground ・to produce highly
enriched uranium, a technology obtained largely from Pakistan in a trade for
missiles.

Unlike North Korea's missiles, which can be seen by satellites as they are
loaded into ships and sent to Iran, Syria, Yemen and other nations,
weapons-grade nuclear material is easily transportable. Experts say that
material would be relatively easy to transport over North Korea's long
border with China, part of the reason that Mr. Bush is working to engage the
Chinese leadership in confronting North Korea about its nuclear program.

"It's a fantasy to think you can put a hermetic seal around North Korea and
keep them from getting a grapefruit-size piece of plutonium out of the
country," said Ashton B. Carter, a Harvard professor who worked on Korea
issues in the Clinton administration, said today. "To allow North Korea to
go nuclear is a major defeat for U.S. security."

The Bush administration has been deeply divided over how to counter North
Korea's efforts to turn its nuclear program into cash, with some of the more
hawkish members urging that talks be abandoned. They want the United States
and its allies ・including China, if it is willing ・to enforce an embargo
that could include the interdiction of North Korean freighters.
Spanish forces intercepted a ship full of missiles headed for Yemen last
year, though Mr. Bush decided to let the ship deliver its goods after
Yemen's president protested.

Mr. Powell was asked today how the United States would react to the
development of a large nuclear arsenal in North Korea, and he answered,
"Their nuclear weapons are not going to purchase them any political standing
that will cause us to be frightened or to think that somehow we now have to
march to their tune." He made no suggestion, however, that the United States
would take military action against the main nuclear facilities that Mr.
Clinton considered attacking.

But when asked whether the United States would ever allow North Korea to
sell or transfer nuclear weapons, Mr. Powell said, "Absolutely not."

Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld said today that he and other former
defense secretaries had been briefed on the military plan in 1994 by the
secretary of defense at the time, William J. Perry. But he declined to draw
the same "red line" for the North Koreans, saying that any decision on
military action would have to made by Mr. Bush.

Mr. Bush and Mr. Howard said nothing about North Korea after their meeting
on Saturday. Mr. Bush's aides say they hope to continue the low-key
approach.

But they are counting on growing aid from China, which was the host of the
talks last week. To build support among Chinese leaders there is talk within
the administration of letting China convene another meeting. "We might be
willing to go to a second round," one senior administration official said.
"The North Koreans have to come prepared to say what they will do, rather
than bargain for what they can get."