送信者: "Kumao KANEKO" <kkaneko@eeecom.jp>
件名 : ＥＥＥ会議（北朝鮮問題と小泉訪米の意義）
日時 : 2003年5月25日 8:28

各位殿

今回の小泉・ブッシュ会談の意義については、内外でいろいろ議論されていますが、
次にご紹介する議論が最もポイントを衝いているのではないかと思います(ある国際
的Eメール会議から）。論者はInternational Herald Tribune等の常連コラムニスト
で、タカ派の論客として知られた国際政治学者です。要点は、北朝鮮に対してはもは
や軍備管理方式では駄目で、金正日体制の転覆が唯一の解決策だ、今後北朝鮮のミサ
イルや核兵器輸出を阻止するためにはブッシュ政権は「ソウルを犠牲にしてもワシン
トンを守る」覚悟であり、日本も同盟国として、北朝鮮船の海上封鎖実施、ミサイル
防衛（MD/TMD）計画への本格的参加に踏み切らざるを得ないだろう、北朝鮮の核ミサ
イル製造の９０％が日本製品だという（北朝鮮の元技師の）議会証言を小泉訪米直前
に公表したのは、まさに、動きの鈍い日本の尻を叩くためとみるべきだ、しかしその
結果（日本のＭＤ計画参加に強く反対している）中国を怒らす危険を招くことにな
る、云々。いよいよ日米同盟の真価が問われる時が来たと感じますが、皆様はいかが
お考えですか？
金子熊夫

**********************************

Yes, this was obviously a much less tense affair than the Roh visit,
where there was only a joint statement, and no press conference.
(Can one read the state dinner for Philippine president Arroyo - only
the third of the Bush presidency - as anything other than a
calculated snub to Roh?)

But Bush is saying that the US will not tolerate a nuclear North
Korea. And that China has only a short time to pull the rug out from
under the Dear Leader.

If push comes to shove, can anyone doubt that Bush would
indeed 'risk Seoul to save Washington'? This is not the Clinton
administration, ever willing to kick the can down the road. The US
simply cannot live with a North Korea that might sell fissile
material. Whatever it takes.

Bush said this very clearly -"we will not tolerate nuclear weapons in
North Korea". And nobody sensible thinks that arms control
solutions are going to work. The only solution is regime change in
North Korea. And the only chance for peace is for China to realise
the danger in time, and act accordingly.

Japan is also being served notice that it may soon be expected to
take part in the interdiction of North Korean missile exports. And
that will not be without risk. Plus missile defence, which will require
Japan finally to get off the fence and risk 'offending China'.

Rumsfeld has been sending shots across Koizumi's bow with
renewed intensity, for those who care to read the signs. Look at
the timing of a whole series of 'revelations', including the one about
North Korea's reliance on stolen Japanese missile technology -
which Mr Stonehill drew our attention to.

The US has also made it blindingly obvious that it is fed up with
Japan's inability to reform, the way it has been dragging down the
regional and global economy for years, and its penchant for
expecting the US to shoulder the burden. ie the US will not allow
Japan to pursue a cheap yen policy.

Robyn Lim