ＥＥＥ会議（Ｒｅ：日米同盟の将来は？）............................................................2003.9.1


昨日、日米同盟の将来に関するインド人専門家Raj Menonの論文"The End of
Alliances"をご紹介しましたが、これに対し早速米国の著名な日本専門家から反論が
出てきました。　

この論者James Auer（元国防総省日本部長）によれば、確かにソ連の崩壊によりＮＡ
ＴＯはその存在意義を大きく減じたが、日米同盟は、北朝鮮問題（核開発やノドン・
ミサイル配備）のお陰で重要性を増しており、近い将来消滅するとは考えられない、
日本が米国から軍事的に独立するためには、Menon氏の言うようにＧＮＰの４％程度
を使う必要があるが、日本はバブル経済最盛期でも１％ちょっとが限度で、今後も
精々1.5％程度だろう、これでは現在の北朝鮮の脅威に独自に対抗するのはとても無
理だ、しかも中長期的に日本にとっての最大の脅威は中国であり、中国の軍事力に対
抗するためには米国と協力する以外になく、従って日米同盟が近い将来終焉を迎える
とは考えられない、日本は、かつて1902-1920年日英同盟、1952年以降日米同盟とい
うようにアングロサクソンと手を組んだときが一番安定している、等と論じておりま
す。これはワシントンの日本専門家たちの平均的な見方と言ってよいと思います。ご
参考まで。
--KK
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Raj Menon's article mentions that Japan is wealthy enough to
spend as much as four percent of GNP on defense and at least
implies that Japan may do so in order to gain "independence" from
the US.  Theoretically I guess he is correct, but if Japan was
unwilling to go above even one percent in the 1980s despite a very
real and proximate Soviet threat, when Japan's economy was
booming, I seriously doubt Japan will go to even 1.5 percent, much
less 2, 3 or 4 percent in anything like the next decade. If Japan
continues to spend anywhere near the present levels on defense, it
is very unlikely to have an adequate defense to deter North Korea,
much less to balance uncertain future Chinese ambitions.

And of course, despite the present, realistic fear of 200 Nodong
missiles possessed by a country's whose rationality is far from
certain, Japan's medium and long range concern remains the future
of China.  China is not at this point a looming Soviet hegemon, but
the future of China is unknown to Japan, to the U.S. and perhaps to
China as well.  Japan knows China will not move, and knows that
China still harbors no love for Japan.  Japan knows of course too
that, for its own reasons, the U.S. could pull out its troops out of
Asia including Japan, but, for the forseeable future, it is very much
in Japan's interest to keep its alliance with the United States as a
hedge.

Despite large differences in language, culture, history and tradition,
since the Meiji Restoration, Japan has done well when allied with
the Anglo-Saxons, with the British from 1902 - 1920 and with the
U.S. from 1952 to the present. I very much appreciated Raj's fine
article, but I don't think the U.S. - Japan alliance has yet seen its
imminent demise.

Jim Auer