ＥＥＥ会議（中東のもう一つの危機：サウディアラビアの核開発計画）......................................2003.9.19


北朝鮮やイランの核兵器開発問題がこじれている最中に、今度は中東の大国サウディ
アラビアが核兵器開発に乗り出そうとしているという悪いニューズが入ってきまし
た。

昨日付けの英紙The Guardianによれば、同国は、従来米国との軍事協力に基づく「核
の傘」に入っていたが、９．１１テロ事件以後米国との関係が悪化し（同テロ事件の
犯人１９名中１５名がサウディアラビア人だった）、その結果米国の「核の傘」に依
存できなくなったと判断したため、今後は、(1)独自の核抑止力を開発する、 (2)米
国以外のいずれかの核兵器國から核の傘の提供を受ける、 (3)中東地域非核兵器地帯
条約締結の可能性を探る、などの選択肢を検討し始めているとのことです。

サウディアラビアとしては、イランの核開発計画の懸念のほか、すでに２００発以上
の核弾頭を所有していると見られるイスラエルに対して国際社会が十分な圧力を加え
ていないことへの不満も、独自の核抑止力開発を選択する誘因となっているようで
す。

いずれにしても、もし同国が(2),(3)の選択肢ではなく(1)の方向に進むとすると、す
でに十分不安定な中東情勢にもう一つの重大な不安定要因が加わることになるでしょ
う。
詳細は次の記事でどうぞ。
--KK

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Saudis consider nuclear bomb

Ewen MacAskill and Ian Traynor in Vienna
Thursday September 18, 2003
The Guardian

Saudi Arabia, in response to the current upheaval in the Middle East, has
embarked on a strategic review that includes acquiring nuclear weapons, the
Guardian has learned.
This new threat of proliferation in one of the most dangerous regions of the
world comes on top of a crisis over Iran's alleged nuclear programme.

A strategy paper being considered at the highest levels in Riyadh sets out
three options:

・ To acquire a nuclear capability as a deterrent;

・ To maintain or enter into an alliance with an existing nuclear power that
would offer protection;

・ To try to reach a regional agreement on having a nuclear-free Middle
East.

Until now, the assumption in Washington was that Saudi Arabia was content to
remain under the US nuclear umbrella. But the relationship between Saudi
Arabia and the US has steadily worsened since the September 11 attacks on
New York and Washington: 15 of the 19 attackers were Saudi.

It is not known whether Saudi Arabia has taken a decision on any of the
three options. But the fact that it is prepared to contemplate the nuclear
option is a worrying development.

United Nations officials and nuclear arms analysts said the Saudi review
reflected profound insecurities generated by the volatility in the Middle
East, Riyadh's estrangement with Washington and the weakening of its
reliance on the US nuclear umbrella.

They pointed to the Saudi worries about an Iranian prog-ramme and to the
absence of any international pressure on Israel, which has an estimated 200
nuclear devices.

"Our antennae are up," said a senior UN official watching worldwide nuclear
proliferation efforts. "The international community can rest assured we do
keep track of such events if they go beyond talk."

Saudi Arabia does not regard Iran, a past adversary with which Riyadh has
restored relations, as a direct threat. But it is unnerved by the
possibility of Iran and Israel having nuclear weapons.

Riyadh is also worried about a string of apparent leaks in American papers
from the US administration critical of Saudi Arabia.

David Albright, director of the Institute for Science and International
Security, a Washington thinktank, said he doubted whether the Saudis would
try to build a nuclear bomb, preferring instead to try to buy a nuclear
warhead. They would be the first of the world's eight or nine nuclear powers
to have bought rather than built the bomb.

"There has always been worries that the Saudis would go down this path if
provoked," said Mr Albright. "There is growing US hostility which could lead
to the removal of the US umbrella and will the Saudis be intimidated by
Iran? They've got to be nervous."

UN officials said there have been rumours going back 20 years that the
Saudis wanted to pay Pakistan to do the research and development on nuclear
weapons.

In 1988, Saudi bought from China intermediate-range missiles capable of
reaching any part of the Middle East with a nuclear warhead.

Four years ago, Saudi Arabia sent a defence team to Pakistan to tour its
secret nuclear facilities and to be briefed by Abdul Qader Khan, the father
of Pakistan's nuclear bomb.

A UN official said: "There's obviously a lot of restlessness in the Middle
East. Regional insecurity tends to produce a quest for a nuclear umbrella.
The Saudis have the money and could provide it to Pakistan."

Mr Albright said the Saudis would face a long haul if they were determined
to acquire nuclear weapons. He doubted whether anyone would sell.

Arab countries yesterday urged the International Atomic Energy Authority,
the UN nuclear watchdog, to get tough with Israel to let inspectors assess
its nuclear programme in line with similar pressure on Iran.

Oman's ambassador to the IAEA, Salim al-Riyami, speaking on behalf of the
Arab League, which represents Arab states, said it was time to get tough
with Israel. "I think it's time to deal with this issue more substantively
than before," he said.