ＥＥＥ会議（エネルギーと食糧の自給率問題）.......................................................................031019


日本のエネルギー安全保障問題を論ずるとき、私たちはしばしばエネルギー自給率と
食糧自給率の比較をします。つまり、低いといわれる食糧自給率は約４０％、それに
対しエネルギー自給率は約２０％（これは原子力発電を国産エネルギーと見た場合の
数字で、原子力を除くと僅か４％）しかない、それだけ海外依存度が高い、だから日
本
のエネルギー脆弱性は異常に大きい、このままでは危険だ、何とかせねばならぬ・・
・・
という議論です。

ところで、この食糧の自給率問題に関してですが、最近貿易自由化に逆行する形で
世界各地域でＦＴＡ（自由貿易協定）問題が進行しており、日本は農業問題で苦戦を
強いられております。とくに米（こめ）の輸入自由化プレッシャーが日本の農家を
直撃しており、今後日本の農政は抜本的な変革を迫られております。これが自民党
を中心とした政治の世界にも大きな影響を及ぼすことは明らかで、小泉内閣の構造
改革路線にも大きく関係してきます。もちろんエネルギー問題と食糧問題は異なる面
も
多く、両者を単純に比較するわけには行きませんが、我々も今後この食糧問題には
もっと関心を払う必要があると思います。

次にご紹介するのは、小生の友人で日本の農業事情に詳しい米国人専門家の意見
ですが、皆様のご参考になれば幸いです。
--KK

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I am getting an impression that agriculture protection in Japan may
be in the process of breaking down. The sources for change are
multiple. China's initiatives to form a free trade zone based on the
ASEAN nations has pushed Japan to respond in order to maintain
some regional political status. Since any attempt by Japan to
counter China with its own free trade arrangements comes up
against the agriculture issue, it is being thwarted in this key
strategic area. On the other side of the Pacific, NAFTA made it
seem that Japan was being squeezed out of North America, and on
the Atlantic side, Japan was an outsider to the EU. With
unpredictable and slow going with WTO negotiations, Japan
embarked on a series of free trade discussions, with Singapore
being the learner vehicle.

At every turn, however, agriculture has upset the proceedings. I was
told that when Koizumi telephoned Nakagawa about a cabinet
appointment, Nakagawa assumed that it would be back to his old
post as MAFF minister, especially since Nakagawa heads several
important agriculture organizations. However, Koizumi gave him
METI, with responsibility for negotiating the several FTAs. Koizumi
reportedly told Nakagawa that if he ever wanted to become prime
minister that he would have to solve the agriculture issue. This
appointment seems like a brilliant personnel move by Koizumi.

MAFF people are saying that they feel great pressure now to
change. They will be allowing corporate farming in an attempt to
gain more efficiency, which is especially important if there is greater
competition from foreign sources; the story is that almost all
agriculture products, except rice, will be opened to imports, perhaps
with quotas at first in a transition stage.

Politicians also are good counters. The number of farmers is
declining precipitously; even with the misallocation of Diet seats to
rural districts, the numbers are not there any more.

All of this suggests international and domestic pressures for
change. Will it take 20 years, as most Japanese reforms, or less? I
have not looked carefully at this issue, but I suspect that it has
been happening quietly for many years. For example, tobacco
imports used to be totally restricted and are now almost totally
uncontrolled.

Any comments, especially from those with real knowledge?

Arthur Alexander