EEE会議(Re:再び「日本核武装論」）........................................................................031103


先ほどお送りした小野章昌氏のメールで紹介されている論文と似たような趣旨の論文
が、米国の有力紙「クリスチャン・サイエンス・モニター」(10/30)にも載っていま
したので、ご参考までお目にかけます。 "Beware a more muscular Japan"　(より一
層強靭な日本の出現を警戒せよ)という題名で、要するに「イラク戦争で日本が米国
を応援してくれるのはいいが、最近日本は大分力(武力）を付けてきており、放置し
ておくと米国も将来厄介なことになるぞ」というような内容です。　現在この論文を
巡って、「日本警戒論」や「日本核武装論」が海外の日本専門家の間で盛んに議論さ
れています。
--KK

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http://www.csmonitor.com/2003/1030/p09s02-coop.html

Beware a more muscular Japan

By Alexandra Starr
October 30, 2003


WASHINGTON ? Japan's offer to help in Iraq - with $5 billion and 2,000
peacekeeping troops - will make it easier for the US to improve security in
Iraq and foster a civil society.
But this gift wasn't born of altruism. Japan - a resource-poor country - has
a stake in seeing Iraqi oil brought back on the international market. And
its aid to the US mission in Iraq has both economic and military strings
that could harm US-Japanese relations long term.

For one thing, Japan's money appears to be a shield from overt criticism of
a currency policy that could have serious implications for the US economy.
And if Japan's peacekeeping foray in Iraq is a preliminary step to raising
the country's military profile - something the Bush administration has
advocated - it could allow Japan to pursue a more independent path. That
would lay the groundwork for Japan to join the ranks of US geopolitical
partners that don't always follow the American line. The US ought to examine
the implicit consequences of Japan's largess.

In the short term, the US is paying an economic price for Japan's help:
Japan's fat check looks like an unspoken quid pro quo that could worsen
prospects for the ailing US manufacturing sector. It's no accident that at
the same time Prime Minister Koizumi made his $5 billion pledge, Japan was
buying dollars - depreciating the value of the yen. A strong dollar makes US
exports more expensive abroad, depresses US sales, and increases
joblessness.

Mindful of the harm to US interests, Treasury Secretary John Snow, in
September, admonished Japan to let its currency appreciate. But a key part
of the prime minister's plan to keep Japan's fragile recovery going is to
spur exports, and after the value of the yen jumped, Mr. Koizumi quickly
intervened in the markets again. Since then, there's been little US comment
on Tokyo's exchance policy. Apparently, Japan's $5 billion check has bought
cover.

This inaction could be costly for Bush. A big chunk of manufacturing jobs
has been lost in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, and a jobless
recovery could bring support for a Democratic challenger.

But at this point Iraq is Bush's biggest crisis. So Japan's help in the
Middle East is likely to outweigh the damage its monetary policies might
inflict. Bush administration officials realize they'll pay a price for
Koizumi's financial generosity. But they look at Japan's offer of military
support - and broader steps the country is taking to rearm - as an
unmitigated good.

Certainly, a fresh influx of Japanese troops will help in Iraq. And it's a
big deal, because it would be the biggest military operation Japan has
engaged in since World War II. But if Japan decides to distance itself from
its pacifist Constitution and beef up its defense structure - as some
Japanese politicians have advocated - there could be unpleasant long-term
consequences for the US. The Bush administration wants Japan to become a
military power because it could provide a proxy force for the US in a
dangerous part of the world (North Korea and China are neighbors). That view
presumes Japan would be an unwavering ally even if it didn't depend on the
US for its defense. But many Japanese policymakers suggest the government is
alarmed by the unilateralist and muscular power the US has become.

"In my three decades in government, this may be the most difficult
administration to be a good ally to," a senior Japanese foreign policy
official said earlier this year. But those concerns aren't going to be
openly expressed as long as Japan looks to the US for its protection. It's a
big reason Koizumi staunchly supported US action in Iraq, even as 70 percent
of the Japanese opposed the war.

If Japan had a more autonomous defense structure, government leaders
wouldn't feel as obligated to toe the line on foreign initiatives its people
don't support - like the war in Iraq. "We can more frankly consult with big
brother if our military posture changes," is the way the Japanese government
official put it.

A Japanese journalist pointed to the example of Germany, another country
that was vanquished in World War II and adopted a national policy of
pacifism. But under German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, the country has been
more aggressive in utilizing its troops, most notably aiding the US in
postwar Afghanistan. That provided the country leverage to oppose the war in
Iraq, the journalist argued: "Germany could speak out. Japan didn't have the
right to express its opinion in the same way."

Japan's money and manpower will help in Iraq. But if the effect is to give
Japan more autonomy, US policymakers may be surprised at how loyal allies
aren't so hesitant to chart their own course if they aren't dependent on
"big brother." And that could make life more difficult for future US
administrations.

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? Alexandra Starr, Business Week's Capitol Hill correspondent, was a Foreign
Press Center fellow in Tokyo last March.