050130 米国Bush政権の地球温暖化問題への姿勢は変わるか?
 
Bush政権は、地球温暖化問題についてはこの4年間一貫して消極的で、そもそも「温暖化と人間活動には因果関係あり」とする科学者たちの意見を受け入れようとしませんが、さすが同盟国イギリスのBlair首相の「仮に科学が嫌いでも、米国はもし自らが設定した議題(=京都議定書)に米国以外の国々が参加することを欲するならば自らがそれに関与すべきだ」という苦言には耳を貸さざるを得ないようです。そのBlair首相の発案で、3月にはロンドンで地球温暖化問題を論ずるハイレベル会議が開かれますし、米国内でも、昨年廃案に終わった包括低エネルギー法案の再審議の中で、共和党のMcCain、民主党のLieberman両上院議員提出の地球気候変動法案が上程され近々議論が本格化すると予想されています。一方民間レベルでも、Shell, Alcoa, DuPont, American Electric Power など大企業も参加する全米エネルギー政策委員会(National Commission on Energy Policy)が、エネルギー業界寄りの保守派(原子力推進派)と環境保護グループ(京都議定書派)との妥協を狙った提案を行なっており、今後米国がこの分野でどういうリーダーシップを取って行こうとしているのか、注目されるところです。Washington Postの社説をご参考までに。
--KK
 
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A Warming Climate

Friday, January 28, 2005; Page A26

FOR THE PAST four years members of the Bush administration have cast doubt on the scientific community's consensus on climate change. But even if they don't like the science, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of their closest allies in Iraq and elsewhere, has given the administration another, more realpolitik, reason to rejoin the climate change debate: "If America wants the rest of the world to be part of the agenda it has set, it must be part of their agenda, too," the prime minister said this week.

Mr. Blair's speech came at an interesting moment, both for the administration's energy and climate change policies and for the administration's diplomatic agenda. In the next few weeks, the House will almost certainly vote once again on last year's energy bill, a mishmash of subsidies and tax breaks that finally proved too expensive even for a Republican Senate to stomach. After a House vote, there may be an attempt to trim the cost of the bill and add measures to make it acceptable to more senators -- including the growing number of Republicans who have, sometimes behind the scenes, indicated an interest in climate change legislation. Indeed, any new discussion of energy policy could allow Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) to seek another vote on their climate change bill, which would establish a domestic "cap and trade" system for controlling the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming.

If domestic politics could prompt the president to look again at the subject, international politics certainly should. Administration officials assert that mending fences with Europe is a primary goal for this year; if so, the relaunching of a climate change policy -- almost any climate change policy -- would be widely interpreted as a sign of goodwill, as Mr. Blair made clear. Beyond the problematic Kyoto Protocol, there are ways for the United States to join the global discussion, not least by setting limits for domestic carbon emissions.

Although environmentalists and the business lobby sometimes make it sound as if no climate change compromise is feasible, several informal coalitions in Washington suggest the opposite. The Pew Center on Global Climate Change got a number of large energy companies and consumers -- including Shell, Alcoa, DuPont and American Electric Power -- to help design the McCain-Lieberman legislation. A number of security hawks have recently joined forces with environmentalists to promote fuel efficiency as a means of reducing U.S. dependence on Middle Eastern oil. Most substantively, the National Commission on Energy Policy, a group that deliberately brought industry, environmental and government experts together to hash out a compromise, recently published its conclusions after two years of debate. Among other things, it proposed more flexible means of promoting automobile fuel efficiency and suggested determining in advance exactly how high the "price" for carbon emissions should be allowed to go, thereby giving industry some way to predict the ultimate cost of a cap-and-trade system.

They also point out that legislation limiting carbon emissions would immediately create incentives for industry to invent new fuel-efficient technologies, to build new nuclear power plants (nuclear power produces no carbon) and to find cleaner ways to burn coal. Technologies to reduce carbon emissions as well as fossil fuel consumption around the world are within reach, in other words -- if only the United States government wants them.