050215  Re: 「核の悪夢:オサマ・ビン・ラデンは広島(核攻撃)を仕掛けるか?」 Washington Post


先日(2/9)、オサマ・ビン・ラデン一派による核テロ攻撃の可能性に関するWashington Post記事をご紹介しましたが、その後これに対する反論が同紙に掲載されました。核爆弾の原料となる放射性物質はそれほど容易に入手できるものではなく、国家以外の、テログループが核爆弾を作れる可能性は少ない、怖いのはやはりイラン、北朝鮮、パキスタン等の国家による核兵器製造で、これを防ぐには核抑止力(米国を核攻撃したり、あるいはテログループに核物質を渡したりしたら米国から壊滅的な報復攻撃を喰らうぞという威嚇)以外にないのだ、という趣旨です。つまり結局米国は核兵器で自分を核攻撃から守る以外にないという冷戦時代以来の論理の再確認で、かくして米国は永久に核兵器を手放せないというわけです。筆者については小生は知りません。ご参考まで。
--KK
 
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Keeping Nuclear Weapons Out of Terrorists' Hands

Sunday, February 13, 2005; Page B06

Regarding Steve Coll's Feb. 6 Outlook piece, "What Bin Laden Sees in Hiroshima":

It is not a lack of nuclear expertise keeping terrorists such as Osama bin Laden from acquiring atomic weapons; it is the availability of fissile material and the precisely manufactured hardware and conventional explosives needed to detonate that material that frustrates them.

The theoretical know-how for making atomic weapons has been available for decades to physicists and their students worldwide. This is why deterrence is the critical factor in protecting the United States from a nuclear attack by terrorists. Only nation-states -- or heavy industries subject to national governments -- have the capability to produce the component parts of a nuclear device, a situation that is unlikely to change anytime soon. A terrorist group would have to purchase or otherwise acquire a completed weapon (or parts) from a government or agents of a government.

While preventing proliferation is good policy, too, the best way to forestall nuclear terrorism is to make sure that potentially hostile nuclear-capable nations such as Iran, North Korea and Pakistan understand that a nuclear attack on the United States would bring overwhelming retaliation against any suspected supplier of nuclear material used in an attack on us. Such a policy should encourage those countries to keep nuclear materials out of the hands of terrorists.

JONATHAN F. KEILER

Bowie