050223  もしEUが対中国武器輸出を解禁すれば台湾だけでなく日本も・・・・


ブッシュ大統領は今回の訪欧で、イラク戦争で傷ついた米EU関係をなんとか修復したように見えますが、その一方で、日本との関係で見ると、深刻な状況が発生しつつあります。それはEUが対中国武器輸出禁止を解除しようとしていることで、もし解除が実施されると、中国と台湾の軍事バランスが損なわれ、中台関係の緊張が高まれば日本の安全保障にも悪影響が出てくるからです。台湾の安全保障に責任のある米国も当然この解除に反対しており、ブッシュ大統領はそれをEU側に伝えたようです。もちろんEUの武器輸出で中国の軍事力(とくにミサイル・システム)が強化されれば直接日本への脅威も増大するわけです。
 
ここ1,2年日米がイラクや北朝鮮問題にかかずらっている隙に、中国とEUの関係が一段と緊密化していることは、例えばITER(国際熱核融合実験炉)計画で中国がフランスのカダラッシュ誘致を強力に支持していることにも如実に現れています。もし中国が最初から六ヶ所村を支持していれば4(日米韓中)対2(EU、露)であっさり勝負がついたものを、中国がカダラッシュ支持に回ったために六ヶ所村誘致が極めて難しくなっているのです。中国側は六ヶ所村を支持しないのは小泉首相の靖国参拝問題のせいだとしていますが、そんなに単純な話ではありません。もっと大きな国際政治の枠組みの中で複眼的に状況を見極めないと、今後日本はあちこちで痛い目に会うということを、この際日本人(とくに原子力関係者)は、十分認識すべきでしょう。ご参考まで。
--KK
 
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Bush Says Europe Should Not Lift Its China Arms Embargo

President Bush was flanked yesterday by President Jacques Chirac of France, left, and Prime Minister Jean-Claude Junker of Luxembourg, president of the European Union, at an official portrait session in Brussels. The woman at right is President Tarja Halonen of Finland.
Stephen Crowley/The New York Times
President Bush was flanked yesterday by President Jacques Chirac of France, left, and Prime Minister Jean-Claude Junker of Luxembourg, president of the European Union, at an official portrait session in Brussels. The woman at right is President Tarja Halonen of Finland.

By ELISABETH BUMILLER

Published: February 23, 2005

BRUSSELS, Feb. 22 - A simmering dispute with Europe came to the forefront on Tuesday when President Bush said there was "deep concern" in the United States that lifting the European Union's arms embargo against China would change the balance of relations between China and Taiwan.

The issue has been one of the few disagreements to spill into the open during Mr. Bush's trip to repair relations across the Atlantic. He and European leaders have worked intently to ease hard feelings over the Iraq invasion, and they have played down the conflict that has risen in the last few months over the arms embargo. Even as he expressed his concerns on Tuesday, Mr. Bush insisted that he was willing to listen to European views on the issue.

In his most explicit public argument, the president said lifting the ban would allow the transfer of critical military technology to the Chinese that would "change the balance of relations between China and Taiwan, and that's of concern."

The administration also fears that such technology, especially advanced radar and communications systems, might be passed on to other countries.

Mr. Bush spoke at a joint news conference with the secretary general of NATO, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, after a summit meeting of alliance leaders agreed to help train security officers for Iraq.

For Europe, the end of the embargo, which was imposed in 1989 after China's crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square, would open a profitable new avenue for arms sales. But leaders also say allowing the sales, which they propose to do by June, would be an important way to forge ties with China.

President Jacques Chirac of France said Tuesday that Europe remained steadfast in its desire to end the ban. He said that "we intend to lift the last obstacles in our relations" with China. But he also said the ban should be lifted "under conditions that Europe and the United States define together."

Officials on both sides said that underneath the diplomatic words was a deep philosophical divide, and that the Americans were taking a hard line against European willingness to engage the Chinese in negotiations and promises.

The European Union is almost certain to lift the 15-year-long embargo by June, but it has tried to quell American fears by saying it will limit the transfer of advanced technology to the Chinese by developing a tough new "code of conduct" for arms exports.

Mr. Bush said he was interested in looking at that code of conduct, and went so far as to say on his second day of a four-day trip to Belgium, Germany and Slovakia that he was on a "listening tour." But he expressed skepticism about the ability of the Europeans to come up with a proposal for curbing the transfer of technology to the Chinese that would satisfy the United States.

"Whether they can or not, we'll see," he said.A senior Bush administration official who briefed reporters on Monday night was far more unequivocal about the administration's opposition. "We remain concerned," the official said. "I should not leave you in any way with the impression that we have changed our view. We have merely heard out the Europeans. I expect that a dialogue - a friendly, serious dialogue about these issues - will continue."

Bush administration officials are most concerned that lifting the embargo would allow the Europeans to sell such advanced technology to the Chinese that they will be able to move to a "next generation" warfare capacity and develop the kind of sophisticated military systems that the United States has used in Afghanistan and Iraq. Such systems could include advanced airborne radar and communications systems, possibly similar to the American E-8C Joint Stars aircraft that help give commanders the ability to reroute troops and airstrikes quickly on the battlefield.

"The administration is not concerned at this time that the Europeans are going to start selling fighter jets, missiles and tanks to the Chinese," said Robin Niblett, the director of the European program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

In his news conference, Mr. Bush also told the Europeans that when they settled on their new code of conduct, they needed to "sell it to the United States Congress."

(以下省略)