In the current debate over the energy bill, one important factor is
being all but ignored: A global renaissance in nuclear energy is gaining
momentum, and it could have greater implications than any or all of the other
proposed methods being discussed for dealing with our energy
problems.
Today some 440 civil nuclear reactors, in 30 countries comprising
two-thirds of humankind, produce 16 percent of the world's electricity. Under
current plans, these nations will construct several hundred more reactors by
2030.
China and India will lead the way, but the expansion will be
broad-based. Nuclear power will also extend to new countries as diverse as
Poland, Turkey, Indonesia and Vietnam. Meanwhile, nuclear "phaseouts" in
countries such as Italy and Germany seem sure to be reversed.
Around the world, there is a new realism about nuclear energy, a
recognition of its essential virtue, which is its capacity to deliver power
cleanly, safely, reliably and on a massive scale. This thinking is eclipsing
old-school anti-nuclear environmentalism.
Increasingly, thoughtful environmentalists see anti-nuclearism as
counterproductive. They worry not about the growth of nuclear energy but about
the likelihood that it is not growing rapidly enough to produce the clean-energy
revolution the world urgently needs.
Carbon fuel emissions -- 900 tons each second -- continue unabated,
even as science warns that we are fast reaching a point of irreversible global
warming with consequences for sea levels, species extinction, epidemic disease,
drought and severe weather events that will disrupt all civilization.
To avert climate catastrophe, greenhouse emissions must be reduced over
the next 50 years by 60 percent -- even as population growth and economic
development are combining to double or triple world energy
consumption.
Every authoritative energy analysis points to an inescapable
imperative: Humankind cannot conceivably achieve a global clean-energy
revolution without a rapid expansion of nuclear power to generate electricity,
produce hydrogen for tomorrow's vehicles and drive seawater-desalination plants
to meet a fast-emerging world water crisis.
This reality requires a tenfold increase in nuclear energy during the
21st century. Fortunately, advances in technology and practice can facilitate
this expansion by meeting legitimate public concerns:
?Safety. In the two decades since Chernobyl, the
global nuclear industry has built an impressive safety record that draws on
12,000 reactor-years of practical experience. A network of active cooperation on
operational safety now links every nuclear power reactor worldwide.
?Arms Proliferation. Illicit weapons programs of
rogue regimes pose an ever-present risk. But strong, universal safeguards can
ensure that civil nuclear facilities do not increase that risk. Security for the
environment and against terrorism need not conflict.
? Cost. Steady reductions in operational and capital costs have
already made nuclear energy highly competitive. Once governments begin to impose
a real price on environmental damage -- through emissions trading or carbon
taxes -- the balance will tilt decisively toward nuclear.
? Waste. In truth, waste is nuclear power's greatest comparative
asset. Unlike carbon emissions, the volume is minimal and can be reliably
contained and managed. For a half-century, the civil nuclear industry has safely
stored and transported all end products from electricity generation. For
long-term storage, a scientific consensus favors deep geological repositories.
Governments worldwide must follow the lead of Finland, Sweden, the United States
and France by moving to construct such sites.
The scope of the environmental crisis requires that governments
accelerate the nuclear renaissance. One essential element will be a
comprehensive post-Kyoto treaty on climate. It must include all major nations
and yield a steady, long-term contraction in global emissions. The key is an
emissions-trading mechanism that yields efficiency in clean-energy investment
and a net flow of investment from North to South. This economic assistance will
be the most cost-effective in history if it prevents the globally destructive
greenhouse emissions that will otherwise occur in the developing
world.
Another key is investment. Full-scale nuclear investment is still
impeded by the absence of carbon penalties, the short-term bias of deregulated
energy markets and the fact that 21st-century nuclear reactors have not yet
achieved economies of scale. Governments must prime the pump using start-up aids
such as loan guarantees and tax credits for first-of-a-kind engineering
costs.
We need multinational investment, too. Today the major U.N. development
institutions reflexively embrace unscientific prejudice while the International
Atomic Energy Agency works alone to promote the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
Governments must now direct the World Bank and the U.N. Development and
Environment Programs to pursue a clean-energy vision with nuclear power in a
central role.
Recently, leading academic institutions in 25 countries formed a
partnership called the World Nuclear University to build standards for a
globalizing nuclear profession. To support this effort, governments worldwide
should marshal their own resources -- and we must summon the great
philanthropies -- to supply a global infusion of scholarship funds for studies
in peaceful nuclear science.
Today technology is spurring a growth in world population and energy
consumption that jeopardizes the future of our biosphere. Wisely used, modern
technology can also be our salvation.
The writer is director general of the World Nuclear Association. He
was U.S. ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency and other U.N.
agencies in Vienna from 1993 to 2001.