050513  Re:「原子力をやっても石油の輸入量は減らせない?」 米国の場合、日本の場合: 豊田正敏氏の意見
 
標記件名のメール(5/9)に関して、豊田正敏氏から次のようなコメントをいただきました。ご参考まで。
--KK
 
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 ブッシュ大統領のエネルギー政策演説に関連して次のようにコメントします。

 

EEE会議の会員の中に、近い将来、石油の需給が逼迫し、価格も上昇するので、その代替エネルギーとしての原子力に切り替えることが最も有望だとか、高速増殖炉の開発を急ぐべきであるという誤った考えの人が多い。しかし、結論から言えば、「原子力発電が石油の代替エネルギーになるとか、将来の石油代替の担い手と考えられる高速増殖炉」という考えはおかしい。

 

 わが国の2002年度の石油の用途別需要は別添ファイルに示すように輸送用燃料のガソリンやジェット燃料及びナフサが全体の6割を占めており、今後さらに増える傾向にある。米国では、ガソリンが石油需要の5割を占める。これに対し、電力の割合は重油を燃やす火力発電の比率が6%にすぎず、それも近年天然ガスのコンバインドサイクル火力に置き換わってきている。従って、石油の需給が逼迫し価格が高騰しても電力で代替出来る部分はごく僅かである。 また、天然ガスの価格が、現在の2倍に上昇したとしても、経済的には、原子力発電は負荷率の55%までの基底負荷の部分を分担し、それより上の部分(負荷率の低い部分)は天然ガスのコンバインドサイクル火力が分担することになり、電力の中の原子力発電の割合は、4~5割以下に止まる。経済性のみでなく、原子力が大部分停止するような事態やバックエンドの不透明性を考慮すればエネルギーセキュリティの観点からも電源の多様化が必要である。

 

 今後、石油の需要が増える中にあって、最初に枯渇するのは、ガソリンやジェット燃料などの輸送用燃料であって、産業用や発電に使用される重質油の需要は天然ガスなど他の燃料に置き換わっており、むしろ減る傾向にある。

石油の需要が逼迫するのに備えて採り得る対策としては当面、省エネルギー対策と代替エネルギーの採用であろう。

自動車では、既に、ガソリン内燃機関とバッテリーを組み合わせたハイブリッド車が採用され燃費の大幅な節減を図っている。

 

中長期的対策としては、

@ 重油、タールサンド、セールオイル、石炭などに水素を添加し改質することにより、輸送用燃料を作る

A メタン、ハイドレード、天然ガス、電解などにより、水素を製造し、この水素を燃料とする燃料電池車

が考えられている。なお、水の電気分解については、電解装置の効率が60~75%である上に、電気代の他に、電解装置の設備費及び運転維持費を考慮しなければならないので現実的ではないと考える。

自動車については、後者の燃料電池の開発が世界各国の自動車メーカーによってしのぎを削って開発が進められているが、燃料電池そのものが極めて高い上に、水素の製造費、水素ステイションでの貯蔵、輸送費などが高く実用化までには少なくとも20~30年はかかると考えられている。 以上

 

----- Original Message -----
From: Kumao KANEKO
To: Undisclosed-Recipient:;
Sent: Monday, May 09, 2005 7:51 PM
Subject: EEE会議: 「原子力をやっても石油の輸入量は減らせない?」 米国の場合

皆様
 
ブッシュ大統領は、先月末行なったエネルギー政策演説(4/28付けメールご参照)の中で、米国はエネルギー自立を図るために海外エネルギー依存度を下げる必要があり、そのためには原子力を大いに増やすのが最も有望だと力説しましたが、この演説に対しては米国内に色々覚めた見方もあります。例えば、本日のWashington Postでは、「原子炉は電気は作るが石油は作らない、そして石油はあまり電気は作らない」と言って、チクリと原子力重視論を批判しています。ちなみに米国では消費される石油のうちエネルギー用は41%で、大部分は非エネルギー用(運輸つまり自動車、産業、家庭用など)。また、昨年の米国の石油消費量は約2,050万バレル/日量ですが、そのうち電力会社が発電に使ったのは60万バレル/日以下だということです。(日本では、石油消費量は約450万バレル/日 で、その約10%が発電用)
 
確かに原子力と石油の関係については、素人には分かりにくく、少なからぬ誤解があるようです。従って日本でも、一般向けに説明する際には、この点に十分留意するべきでしょう。ご参考まで。 ご意見のある方はどうぞ。
--KK
 
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When It Comes to Replacing Oil Imports, Nuclear Is No Easy Option, Experts Say

Published: May 9, 2005

WASHINGTON, May 8 - President Bush has proposed reducing oil imports by increasing the use of nuclear power, which he said in a recent speech was "one of the most promising sources of energy."

There is a problem, though: reactors make electricity, not oil. And oil does not make much electricity.

Nuclear reactors produce about 20 percent of the electricity used in the United States and about 8 percent of the total energy consumed. Oil accounts for 41 percent of energy consumption.

Could a few dozen more reactors, in addition to the 103 running now, cut into oil's share of the energy market?

"Indirectly, but very indirectly," said Lawrence J. Goldstein, president of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a nonprofit group that studies the economics of oil. People who think nuclear power is a way to reduce oil imports are "confusing several issues," he said.

Peter A. Bradford, a former member of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, added, "No one knowledgeable about energy policy would link nuclear power and gasoline prices."

In the puzzle of energy consumption and production, however, experts point to three intersections of oil and nuclear power that would offer opportunities to cut demand for oil, pushing down its price and strategic significance. But all are limited, clumsy, expensive or dependent on new technologies whose success is not guaranteed, the experts say.

The first option is to replace the oil used to make electricity with new nuclear reactors. But most of the oil in the electric sector has already been replaced, by coal.

According to the Energy Department, last year the electric utilities used about 207 million barrels of oil, or less than 600,000 barrels a day. (Total American consumption of oil is about 20.5 million barrels a day.)

Even the 600,000-barrel figure is higher than what nuclear reactors could replace, because some of that oil is used in generators that run only a few hundred hours a year. Reactors must run continuously, so they could not replace the oil-fired plants that are used only intermittently.

The electric system consumes another fuel that nuclear power could replace: natural gas. Last year, American utilities burned just under 5.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, out of total consumption of 22.3 trillion cubic feet.

"You can get a scenario where nuclear would free the gas to go to other things," replacing oil and gasoline, said Thomas Capps, the chairman of Dominion, one of several electric companies that have expressed interest in building new nuclear reactors. "You can run cars on natural gas," he said.

The technology for that is available, but not many people use it. According to the Natural Gas Vehicle Coalition, a lobbying group, about 130,000 such vehicles are on American roads today, out of more than 200 million. After decades of promoting natural gas, federal and state governments have made some headway in persuading commercial fleets to switch. But they have essentially given up on selling natural gas to ordinary consumers, who have been unwilling to convert their vehicles to use it.

There is also little economic incentive behind using natural gas. Mr. Goldstein noted that the current wholesale price of gas, about $7 per million B.T.U. (the standard unit by which gas is sold), is the equivalent of $42 per barrel for oil. But oil now sells for about $50 a barrel, which means the price difference is not enough to induce a switch.

Gas must also be pressurized for a car to hold enough to travel more than a few miles; pressurizing it and distributing it to service stations would add expense.

But there is another way that nuclear reactors could influence the oil supply, one that bypasses electricity completely. Nuclear engineers are working on designs and materials for a new class of reactors - which could be ready in about 20 years - whose main product would be heat.

The Idaho National Laboratory in Idaho Falls, which is owned by the Department of Energy, is working on ways to take very hot steam from a nuclear reactor, then run a small electric current through it to separate the water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen. If that can be done more cheaply than the current method of producing hydrogen, which uses natural gas, the hydrogen could be used at refineries to make components of gasoline.

Gasoline is made of molecules with a certain ratio of carbon to hydrogen. Part of each barrel of oil consists of molecules with too much carbon to be useful in gasoline; instead, those molecules are used only in low-value products like asphalt and tar.

The technology exists for refineries to break up those molecules and add hydrogen, until the hydrogen-carbon ratio is suitable for making gasoline or diesel.

David Lifschultz, chief executive of Genoil, a company that makes systems for using hydrogen at refineries, says the oil supply being exhausted first is light oil, which has many components that can be used in gasoline. Heavy oil, with components high in carbon, is far more abundant and often sells at a discount of $20 or $25 a barrel, he said.

Available technology could convert 16 million barrels a day of heavy oil, about a sixth of the world supply, into gasoline components, Mr. Lifschultz said, driving down the price of light oil.

J. Stephen Herring, a consulting engineer at the Idaho lab, explained two other ways for reactors to make motor fuel.

Canada has vast reserves of shale oil, now being converted to ingredients of motor fuel by using natural gas. The gas is used to heat the shale to make its oil flow more easily, and hydrogen, also obtained from the natural gas, is incorporated into the oil to make it suitable for use in gasoline. But a nuclear reactor could do those jobs, delivering both hydrogen and steam for cooking the oil out of the rock, Mr. Herring said.

Another strategy, he said, would be to break down coal, shale oil or other hydrogen fuels into a gas comprising hydrogen and carbon monoxide. At high pressure, these materials could form molecules suitable for making gasoline or diesel. A reactor could provide the energy required.

But using a reactor to make the ingredients of gasoline is many years away; the new reactors being considered by utilities are similar to the ones running now. The experts say that only after several of those have been built and have run for a few years is a private company likely to try something more adventurous.

Mr. Herring did not fault that strategy. "If I were responsible for spending the billion dollars," he said, "I'd be conservative, too."